Tensions between Jacinda Ardern’s government and Māori interests over Waitangi have been highlighted before it has even begun, following the withdrawal of the Māori party and iwi leaders from the event over coronavirus concerns.
In the light of positive Covid-19 cases identified in Northland and Auckland, Māori leaders opted to pull out of attending the five days of talks and celebrations marking the signing of the Treaty of Waitangi.
According to the latest itinerary, the event is due to start on Tuesday afternoon with a pōwhiri ceremony to welcome Labour’s Māori caucus and some other MPs to Te Tii Marae: the historic site of protest and politically-charged conflict.
Under Ardern’s leadership, politicians have stayed away from that part of the treaty grounds in the hopes of restoring harmony to Waitangi, with all talks taking place at the more neutral Te Whare Rūnanga Marae.
Dr Bryce Edwards, the political analyst in residence at Victoria University of Wellington, said the request to return to Te Tii Marae was a sign “of just how much effort the Labour MPs are making to reconnect and reaffirm their hold over Māori support”.
That may prove challenging in the time of Covid, with the government’s efforts to recognise its historic relationship with Māori – and strong support from voters – complicated by Māori leaders’ decision to stay away.
Per the supplied itinerary, Ardern will not be present at the pōwhiri, due to a stated clash with a virtual cabinet meeting.
She is due to join her ministers on Wednesday at Ruapekapeka Pā, the site of the 1846 battle between the British and Ngā Puhi, to unveil a memorial to the British servicemen who died there.
The full parliamentary pōwhiri will be held at the upper Te Whare Rūnanga Marae on Thursday afternoon.
Three days of visits to local sites – including Kawiti marae and the waka (canoe) camp at Bledisloe Domain – are scheduled to culminate on Saturday with a dawn ceremony at the upper marae, then a barbecue where Ardern and MPs serve breakfast to the public.
The hugely popular event was introduced by Ardern in 2018 to make Waitangi – in the past seen as a divisive day dominated by politics and sometimes protest – more open and celebratory.
Māori Crown relations minister Kelvin Davis told the Guardian that other changes over the past three years – such as structuring ministers’ report to iwi leaders, and supporting their participation in te reo – had helped to make Waitangi a day of peace and reverence.
“It’s all about working in partnership together, and that’s what Te Tiriti o Waitangi [the treaty] is all about … The changes that we’ve made have brought a sense of calm, and that’s resonating,” he said.
Edwards said Ardern’s moves to “depoliticise” Waitangi Day had been hugely successful, with little of past years’ dissatisfaction with the government on display at the event in 2020.
This year the government risked jeopardising that by pushing on with its Waitangi Day plans in the face of the withdrawal of Māori leaders.
“The Māori party is clearly saying that keeping Māori Covid-free at Waitangi is more important than political celebrations,” says Edwards. “This message will just reinforce the party’s argument that Labour doesn’t really care about Māori and is keener on the pomp and ceremony.”
Dr Lara Greaves, a lecturer in New Zealand politics at the University of Auckland, said the government was in a difficult position: “Continuing on with their current plan might make them seem less responsive to Māori.”
But she added that views among Māori would be diverse and the situation would likely become clearer with more insight into the Covid cases and input from local communities.
Chris Hipkins, the minister for Covid-19 response, said there were no new cases of community transmission to announce on Friday and that this provided reassurance for the upcoming long weekend and Waitangi celebrations.
There was “no reason people’s travel plans should change”, he said.
In her first speech as prime minister at Waitangi in 2018, Ardern was widely praised for urging iwi leaders to hold the government to account in meeting its treaty obligations.
This year, after her landslide election win, Ardern is expected to face questioning over how her government will use that mandate to improve Māori outcomes and equity.
Key issues on the agenda may be injustice in the prison system, as highlighted by the Waikeria Prison protest over New Year; and Māori-led approaches to social care as the government seeks to move on from successive findings of failings within the child services agency Oranga Tamariki.
Last week, Davis announced the formation of a new Māori-led advisory board tasked with restoring confidence in Oranga Tamariki, following the recent resignation of chief executive Gráinne Moss.
Davis said the agency needed to rebuild its relationships with Māori families and communities.
“We’ve got to start to entrust funding and decision making to Māori on the ground, in the regions. That’s having the courage to relinquish control and put it – and the resources – in the hands of the people doing the job.”
Davis said that “there absolutely is willingness to change” government systems and agencies that are not working for Māori. “We’ve got to keep … trusting in Māori initiatives to decrease the disparities.”
At Waitangi last year Ardern told Radio New Zealand that tackling that “basic, material” gulf between Māori and Pākehā – such as in housing, child poverty and housing – took utmost priority.
But after sluggish progress towards those goals in her first term, experts question the extent to which Ardern may be prepared to risk her political capital to achieve them.
Edwards said increasing discussion and awareness of Māori aspirations would likely not be met with material investment from her “fiscally very conservative” government.
Social overhaul – such as to address failings of housing or the healthcare system that disproportionately impact Māori – would likely be deemed too politically risky.
“This government will be very aware of the risks of crossing some lines that burn off support in middle New Zealand,” he said.
At the same time, Greaves said Labour would be under more pressure to act in Māori interests now that it is governing alone, without a coalition partner acting as a self-styled “handbrake”.
“If Māori groups are trying to push a policy or put something forward that aligns with Labour’s general kaupapa [principles], and there are not gains made in this next term, there becomes the potential for Labour to lose that relationship,” she said. “There’s no excuses at this point.”
Greaves said the return of the Māori party at last year’s election – which saw Labour lose a Māori seat, standing against the “red tidal wave” that swept most of the country – reflected a desire for parliamentary representation beyond Labour and more radical structural change.
If Labour’s representation and rhetoric does not meet with results, Greaves said, “the potential for it to wear thin with voters, and with Māori voters, is real”. Waitangi may be the first test.