Chris Hipkins is getting credit for his handling of the cyclone and I think that’s fair enough.

Newly into the role of PM and he’s had to hit the ground running —literally— with a crisis.

To be fair though, in the immediate aftermath of a disaster an elected leader does get a free kick. All you have to do is be present and visible, have a ton of empathy and own the communication around the media updates. Labour did this during Covid, and now they’re doing it again. 

But —and here’s the rub— that halo effect can fade as failings in the response from public and private entities start to surface. The longer there’s no power or access, the worse the looting and the gangs get, then the worse this whole thing gets for the government. 

People have an enormous amount of scope, patience and understanding in the direct aftermath – but the longer it goes on, the more that patience fades. Add to that, contributory negligence like bureaucrats squabbling over whose responsible – Council arguing with Waka Kotahi, local government arguing with central government, private agencies scrapping with public ones and it gets even worse. 

So up until now, this phase of the response is right over Labour’s home plate - visibility, empathy, a lot of media noise, reactions and promises aplenty. But the next phase is its Achilles heel: delivery and accountability. Will they do what they say they’re going to do? Can they deliver it? Will they step up on what they can do at a central government level? Will they be honest about what they can’t? 

Today’s impressive response is tomorrow’s Kiwibuild, or child poverty, or mental health, or vaccine rollout or MIQ management. Looking good up front and saying all the right things is one thing, getting it right after the fact is another.

The honeymoon phase Labour’s been basking in with its new leader and a fresh immediate crisis to respond to is fading. So how long before the issues that have plagued this government and its inability to deliver are laid bare once again? How much listening to people is being done or not done? 

Locals in Hawkes Bay being ransacked by looters and gangs will tell you they don’t really feel listened to. They’re crying out for more police. The Police Minister says he’s sending in an extra 145. As Act pointed out, that’s a fraction of the 600 extra cops they sent into the protest on Parliament’s lawn. Where’re the military many are asking. 

This is a time for decisive strong leadership – for putting words into action. But the PM says there is no law-and-order crisis. Is he gaslighting locals? Telling them what they're seeing and experiencing isn't real? Trust and confidence is starting to wane as Police Minister Stuart Nash himself said. 

It’s ripe time for action, for good bold decisive leadership. For getting tangible outcomes for beleaguered communities right now. The advantage is already Labour’s, but the execution from here will be what counts for them.