Scoring my predictions for 2020
A year ago I did my annual predictions for the forthcoming year. So it is time to score them!
- NZ First will not make 5% in the 2020 election – correct 1/1
- ACT will gain at least a second MP – overachieved 1/1
- By the end of 2020 (after three years) the Government will not have achieved even 5% of its ten year targets for houses or trees – correct as they were under 1% and under 3% respectively – 1/1
- National will win more electorate seats in 2020 than 2017 – massively wrong 0/1
- The End of Life Choice Bill referendum will pass – correct 1/1
- The Cannabis legalisation referendum will fail – correct 1/1
- No new political party will enter Parliament in 2020 – could have been worded clearer as I meant party not previously won seats. Morally 1/1 but give myself 0.5/1 for being unclear
- The Government’s 2019/20 accounts will breach their Fiscal Responsibility Rules – massively so 1/1
- The Government will scrap the Fiscal Responsibility Rules – sadly yes 1/1
- Brexit will occur on 31 January 2020 – it did 1/1
- The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for September 2020 will be the same or higher than September 2019 – up up from 4.2% to 5.3% so 1/1
- James Shaw will have a leadership challenge but win – no challenge so 0/1
- Pete Buttigieg will win the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary – he beat Sanders by 0.1% in Iowa but lost by 1.2% in New Hampshire so 0.5/1
- Donald Trump will win re-election if the nominee is Warren or Sanders but lose to Biden or Buttigieg or Bloomberg – correct 1/1
- Rebecca Long-Bailey will replace Jeremy Corbyn as UK Labour Leader – wrong thankfully for Labour 0/1
- There won’t be a firm commitment to shift the Ports of Auckland to Northland, even though NZ First will pretend there is. Correct 1/1
- Shane Jones will stand in Northland and lose. Correct 1/1
- Jacinda Ardern will get married before the general election – wrong, maybe this summer. 0/1
- The Government will back the proposed NZME/Stuff merger to the Commerce Commission – wrong 0/1
- Parliament will not vote to restore voting rights to some prisoners before the 2020 election – also wrong 0/1
Overall score: 13/20. I got 14/20 in 2019 and 12/20 in 2018.