By Chris Trotter*
Was it "the mother of all protests?" Of course not. By virtue of their sheer material bulk, convoys of tractors, utes and trucks are required to compensate for a serious deficiency in human numbers. Yes, a convoy of 100-200 vehicles looks very impressive as it passes under a motorway overbridge.
But a crowd composed of the 200-500 individuals travelling in those vehicles doesn’t look very impressive at all. Quite the reverse. Assuming that the advertised individual “Groundswell” protest hubs did indeed number 60, and that the number of farmers and their hangers-on at each one of them averaged 300, then across the country, we are talking about a protest of around 18,000 individuals.
Compare that to what is still the largest demonstration in New Zealand history: the 70,000 Labour Party supporters and trade unionists who rallied in the Auckland Domain on the eve of the 1938 General Election; and the Groundswell organiser’s claims are thrown into risible relief.
The Groundswell organisers have a similar problem when the co-ordinated protests against the Employment Contracts Bill are set alongside their own. According to the research of US labour jurist and academic, Dr Ellen Dannin, who was teaching at Massey University during 1990, the anti-ECB “Week of Action” (3-10 April, 1991) “included strikes, stopwork meetings, rallies, and marches involving 300,000 to 500,000 New Zealanders.”
So, did Sunday, 21 November 2021, witness the “Mother Of All Protests”? Nope. Not even close.
These glaring discrepancies in terms of mass political support, point to the problem the New Zealand “farming community” has faced for more than 100 years. Its economic importance is out of all proportion to its numbers. In terms of democratic politics, this places farmers in an invidious position. How do they protect themselves from the designs of non-farmers, whose numerical preponderance positions them as the ultimate arbiters of farming fortunes?
Historically, farmers relied upon New Zealand’s First-Past-The-Post electoral system (FPP) to blunt the numerical advantage of town and city dwellers. FPP, by concentrating working-class votes in urban electorates, allowed farmers and their economic allies to win electorates where, in terms of class and occupation, the voting population was much less homogeneous.
When the growth of New Zealand’s urban population threatened to undermine this critical advantage, the farmers political representatives created what came to be known as “The Country Quota” – whereby rural votes were artificially weighted so as to offset the numerical advantage of urban voters. (This outrageous piece of gerrymandering remained in force until 1945!)
With the introduction of Mixed Member Proportional Representation (MMP) in 1996, however, the farming community was stripped of all its electoral advantages. Nothing now stood between the overwhelming majority of New Zealanders who lived in the nation’s major cities, and the dwindling number of Kiwis who lived in rural and provincial New Zealand, except the enduring cultural mythology of “the heartland”, and the “cocky” as the “backbone of the nation”. Preserving these myths is crucial to the farming community – both economically and politically.
Achieving this critical objective entails the farming sector clearing some formidable cultural hurdles. How are farmers to preserve the goodwill of urban New Zealand when, for more than a century, they have looked upon the cities as the breeding grounds for all manner of moral and political evils? This alienating motif of Rural Virtue vs Urban Vice has been a recurring feature of New Zealand history. From “Massey’s Cossacks”, to Jenny Shipley’s “Benefit Cuts”, rural New Zealand has seen it as both its right and its duty to put the cities in their place.
John Mulgan, in his celebrated novel, Man Alone (1939) captures this desiccated rural culture and its hard-baked prejudices:
“It was not long before Johnson was at home in this country. He talked as they all talked. He got to know the dates of the race meetings and where to go for a beer in town at most times, and the story of the 1905 match when Wales beat the All Blacks by one try to nil, and why it was necessary to have a farmers’ government to protect the real interests of the country.”
And those “real interests of the country” are no figment of rural New Zealand’s imagination. This country’s agricultural exports still constitute the backbone of its economy – especially in these Covid-afflicted times. It is absolutely vital, therefore, that the nation’s farmers keep farming with all the productivity and efficiency for which they are internationally renowned.
Not that their key lobbying organisations need any instruction in this regard. Federated Farmers, in particular, has long understood the necessity of keeping urban New Zealand’s faith in the cockies of the heartland topped-up. It’s problem, however, is that the behaviour of its members all-too-often contradicts the carefully-crafted image of the farmer as steward of the land, sensitive innovator, and patriotic economic contributor. It is surely no accident that the pre-eminent contributor to New Zealand’s rural mythology, Country Calendar, has less and less to say about the industrial farming laying waste the rural environment, preferring, instead, to concentrate on those conscientized farmers at the margin: all of them doing their bit to save the planet.
Into this extremely delicate situation, the Groundswell organisers have blundered like an Aberdeen-Angus steer in an organic vege-shop. Unreasonably proud of their rural economic virtues, and dangerously forthright in their enumeration of the cities’ political vices, these Kiwi equivalents of America’s “good ole boys” have presented a portrait of rural New Zealand from which many urban Kiwis have recoiled in disgust. Well might the National Party and Federated Farmers rail against Labour Cabinet Minister Stuart Nash’s “racists and anti-vaxxers” comment. They knew exactly who he was talking about.
The irony of all this “She’s a pretty communist” antipathy towards the Labour Party and its Leader, is that, historically, it was the Labour Party that did the most to restore order to New Zealand’s depression-ravaged rural economy. For 50 years, Labour’s reforms made it possible for Kiwi farmers to worry about little more than droughts, floods and how to get more ewes/cows to the acre. Also forgotten is the fact that when Roger Douglas put all of these support structures to the torch, back in the 1980s, Federated Farmers was not there with a hose to douse the flames. Nor, when it came right down to the tin-tacks of the free market, was National.
The survival of New Zealand farming – and farmers – will turn on how fulsomely they embrace the virtues deemed essential to the survival of civilisation as we know it. Climate Change does not distinguish between urban and rural, cocky and townie. It will take both to bring New Zealand safely through the dangerous twenty-first century. In the process, it can only be to the benefit of both sides of the rural/urban divide if they become a whole lot more like each other.
Because, as the poet Denis Glover, who knew a thing or two about the country and the town, put it in his wistful poem, “Thistledown”:
Dream and doubt and the deed
Dissolve like a cloud
On the hills of time
Be a man never so proud
Sings Harry
He is only thistledown planted on the wind.
*Chris Trotter has been writing and commenting professionally about New Zealand politics for more than 30 years. He writes a weekly column for interest.co.nz. His work may also be found at http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com.
78 Comments
"This country’s agricultural exports still constitute the backbone of its economy" - and always will. Successful manufacturing will always move overseas to larger markets. Tourism equates to low wages, bad conditions. Export education is an embarrassing joke that is propped up by selling dreams of citizenship to the 3rd world - if it had to stand on its merits then students would be arriving from the UK, USA, Canada and even Australia.
NZ should worry that its exports as a fraction of GDP are declining despite the world's population growing.
The answer is that 83% of exports currently come from our primary industries. You can find this stated by MPI in their 'State of Primary Industries' document from earlier this year. The percentage has been increasing inexorably each year over the last ten years. This is what pays for the computers, machinery, fuel, pharmaceuticals and other items that NZ imports. It also includes many food items that NZ is not competitive at manufacturing in our hilly and mountainous land, with most of it naturally infertile, and with very limited land suitable for cropping.
KeithW
Keith, I'm not knocking NZ's primary industries.
The original comment was about the NZ economy not exports, New Zealand exports of goods and services as percentage of GDP is 26.99% and imports of goods and services as percentage of GDP is 27.10%, as you can see imports exceed exports, so no exports don't pay for imports, at least not all of them.
https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/NZL#:~:text=New%20Zealand%….
xing,
It might interest you to know that while dairying represents some 40% of total exports, our total exports(goods and services) represented under 30% of GDP in 2019. Source: World Bank Macrobond. We are well behind many other small countries. In the Netherlands for example exports account for some 80% of GDP.
Well the removal of SMPs certainly sealed the fate of numerous sheep farmers but that action was a heck more justified than Muldoon’s implementation of them in the first place. Such subsidies distort and remove the reality of the actual business. Also the throughput obsessed & poor quality freezing industry saw closure of these outmoded works begin in earnest, as the absence of sufficient market became impossible to deny. From recollection at that time, in the eighties, Muldoon’s gambit with SMPs coupled with the insertion of the Meat Board as a single seller cost the tax payer in excess of NZ$2billion a time when NZ’s economy was weak, oil crisis, rampant inflation, strikes aplenty, regular devaluations. In that regard, and particular episode, Mr Trotter is correct that tax payers would be justified to feel more than sour about farming.
At the time, long before tourism got into full swing with cheap wide bodied jet fares, & anything amounting to technological earnings, IT, software etc, it didn’t take much to work out NZ as being a mercantile nation & primary production being the vast percentage of that. Actually what else was there? And a population of 3.5 mill generating very little domestic industry and considerably reliant on imported raw materials. So yes Muldoon could certainly work that out as well as anyone else but don’t overlook either that National relied heavily on that rural vote, keep them in the money, keep them happy. There was almost as much calculated political vote winning in that as the decision to allow in the Springbok Tour.
Consumers want healthy nutritious food of known provenance, produced with high standards of animal and environmental welfare. With our GM free status and grass fed systems, NZ is in a very strong position to gain maximum value for our produce. We are too small to compete consistently in commodity markets. It doesn't matter which party is in power, the consumer dictates the market, it is a poor business that doesn't listen to its customers.
If a minority of farmers can't see the massive opportunity that lies before them, they should probably cash in their chips and retire to the beach. There is a new generation of farmers and growers ready to take their place.
There is still some hesitancy in the EU with several countries still banning production and insisting of labelling of imported product, but overall concern has reduced over the last decade. There remains consumer concern about specific GM applications such as herbicide tolerant crops, due to perceptions around over use of chemicals and fear of glyphosate (whether justified or not).
GM free is for ignorant people who do not understand science and just like the catch phrase.
GM is the best option we have to feed the increasing global population, and especially in less hospitable environments where the poorer populations live and climate change disproportionately impacts. EG Northland, Hawkes bay and Canterbury are getting increasingly hot and dry summers, so GM plants that are more drought resistant will benefit NZ massively.
The best option we have to feed an increasing population is to look after our long term soil health and to store and use water more effectively. A number of civilisations have collapsed due to loss of top soil. GM is an easy fix to one problem at a time, a sustainable production system requires a more holistic approach. Also if consumers are willing to pay more for Organic/Regen products, who are we to judge their grasp of science? Let the market decide.
"This country’s agricultural exports still constitute the backbone of its economy – especially in these Covid-afflicted times. It is absolutely vital, therefore, that the nation’s farmers keep farming with all the productivity and efficiency for which they are internationally renowned."
Bollocks, Chris. Compare that to: "The survival of New Zealand farming – and farmers – will turn on how fulsomely they embrace the virtues deemed essential to the survival of civilisation as we know it."
By the time they have aligned with the latter, they're hell-and-gone from the former.
Cognitive dissonance, Chris?
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2021-11-21/the-end-of-growth-ten-yea…
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/11/10/our-fossil-fuel-energy-predicamen…
How about a big-picture piece, CT?
I understand there was a dead horse at the roundabout before the river bridge in Whakatane and it was associated with Groundswell. I immediately imagined a group of protesters standing round flogging it.
Made sure the Ute was out of town so as not to be associated.
Nice dinosaur pic.
For once Chris I'm gunna have to say rubbish! You are wrong!
This group and the Anti's, the God Squad and the people who were sacked for not getting the 'jab' represented thousands of others that aren't in wuv with the widdle princess anymore and the last 5 polls shows that.
These diverse groups of people also represent the 685,000 people who were registered to vote in 2020 but didn't. Now they're organised, well funded and on message.
They like many others are tired of covid, Cindy and her caretaker government.
I hope they realise that they can make a difference by working together to carry on protesting and apply pressure to this lame-duck government to get to work or get out of parliament.
The stats suggest otherwise. Labour and the Greens would still win if an election was held today. Jacinda is still 3.5 times more popular than David Seymour and around 7 times more popular than Judith Collins. The majority clearly support cleaner waterways and greater regulation of farming, they also broadly support the covid-response. Over 90% of people have been vaccinated, un-vaccinated people are noisy but in a tiny minority.
There is a lot not to like about Labour, but the opposition is not presenting a coherent set of policies that resonate with the majority. Getting angry about everything without presenting a positive solution is a waste of time and energy.
Rubbish! The trend is what matters. The minute a poll is closed, it is effectively dead.
5 polls in a row show a trend which is labour down from 54% to less than 41/39%12 months ago and the gweens always overpoll pre-election by 3% to 5%+ so they're dog tucker especially when they've already cancelled themselves for being a 'Hater' eco-terrorist group.
Covid kills governments.
The trend it that National is flatlining and Collins is falling. Act is increasing and could go over 20%. But they won’t attract enough of the middle ground. National need to get their house in order and present a centre right position balancing economic growth with environmental protection, in order to win gen x and millennial voters. The times they are a changing.
Nobody is angry. I guess you are another eco-terrorist tropeologist from the misguided and misled IP culture club.
The culture wars are over in NZ. That is why the labour vote is tanking. People have had enough of the divisiveness and toxicity of you people. Have a cup of tea and lie down.
I have been known to hug a tree or two but I also work in primary industry and know that sustainability has to be economic as well as environmental. I regard myself as a centrist and non partisan. I even have close friends who would agree with you. It is possible to disagree respectfully.
I do like lying down and drinking tea.
They are not cautious. They gave up on elimination!
More people have died! Daily, more and more people are reported to have covid!
Printing, QE in excess of $100b hasn't solved anything other than kicking the can down the road and they'll have to get Robo to load up the bazooka with another $100b! And none of that has improved the 'lot' for all of the team of 5 million. You're either delusional or on something?
What planet are you on?
It has improved it for the haves. In retrospect, it's amazing how suddenly people identified that existing welfare backstops were not enough to keep them in their position in society and the life they think they deserve, and how quickly two-tier welfare was brought in to keep the good people in their existing wealth and indeed - along with monetary policy to move wealth from some to others - enrich them further.
Some are quick to criticise "beneficiaries" yet the last 18 months has seen an incredible amount of handouts dedicated to keeping folk in their proper place in society, not exposing them to financial risk that is part of a grey / black swan event.
Cant do woke or manufacture a narrative like the wokersters do so I guess that's a Nah. I'm not buying into the cultural wars, Identity Politics of words that trigger the feeble-minded and the easily offended. That's a boring and distracting trope(ology) of the lame.
So, try again? The widdle Princess excluded these people from what she once called NZ'ders 'a' team of 5 million but now they're not! With a 'they are not us!' Who is been divisive in NZ now? So get a grip with your pious preaching and accept that the caretaker government and the snake oil salesman/woman is dog tucker.
Cant do woke or manufacture a narrative like the wokersters do so I guess that's a Nah. I'm not buying into the cultural wars, Identity Politics of words that trigger the feeble-minded and the easily offended.
This must be a satirical account, surely?
No one could post those sentences together in earnest.
Have to say I'm not a fan of the labour governments recent handling of Covid, although they may still get my vote for the first time next election.
But talk like "others that aren't in wuv with the widdle princess" and calling Jacinda Cindy, is so cringey for me. Anyone else feel like this? Play the ball not the (wo)man.
While I agree, it behooves me to point out that politicians of all genders, races and political leanings are mocked mercilessly. My introduction to politics as a young child was discussions about "Piggy" Muldoon, a man ridiculed almost as much for his voice, phusical stature and appearance as much as his policies. At least David Lange had a booming voice to offset his heft.
I am no more offended by references to "Cindy" than I have been to Uncle Helen, Jonkey/Jong Xi, Soimon Brudges, Crusher Collins and so on. Kids gonna kid.
"The survival of NZ farmers will depend on how fully they embrace virtues"! I fully reject that attitude. I'll keep my freedom to doubt and question, follow well proven science and let the virtuous prattle on, into their own echo chamber. If farmers go down, they will take the whole economy with them.
If NZ farmers go out of business, the net emissions per unit of food produced will go up, as NZ farmers are more efficient than most of their peers worldwide .The obsession with NZ's methane output from agriculture is a red herring in that sense. Thinking globally, overseas farmers' carbon credits should be paid to NZ farmers.
As a farmer myself I still can't work out what the protest is all about. As far as I can see things on the farm are ticking along nicely, covid has had little impact on rural NZ as farmers just carried on as usual. We live 1 hour 20 mins to the nearest shop and have had no problem getting the jab or anything else. I think it is basically a political protest. What about all those small business's in Auckland whose incomes have been severely hit. I say farmers need to look at all the positives in their situation compared to urban NZ and stop complaining about petty gripes.
You are not alone , and are actually probably part of the majority of farmers. i wouldn't say they are happy with the government , but they do recognise change has to be made.
This lot just seem to want things to stay as they are, to leave it up to them to do the right thing. If they can agree what the right thing is , that is .
They are both UN sustainable development goals signed up to by all member states. Are you arguing that we shouldn't have clean rivers? I prefer not to swim in sh*te.
Dairy farmers have complained (with some justification) that they are unfairly singled out for polluting rivers with effluent and runoff. They point out that urbanites are also to blame, as beaches are often closed due to faecal contamination following heavy rain events. There has been massive under investment by Councils in water treatment infrastructure and 3 waters reform is looking to address this. It may seem unfair to some communities, but overall it is a problem that needs addressing. Pollution and Biodiversity loss are just as pressing issues as climate change and should be easier to fix, with the added benefit that the results will be seen and enjoyed locally rather than globally.
Wellington city has gone for a methane burning treatment plant for Moa Point recently.
Definetly urban sewage should be upgraded to a high standard. Most major cities are near the sea , and rivers passing through them are already polluted upstream , ut still no sense in adding to it .
They might be pressing issues, but people need to stop dressing it up as anything to do with climate change.
Also I cannot see any justification for iwi having a 50% controlling share of how it's run, are they going to pay 50% of the rates? no need to answer, they will pay nowhere near that, if any at all.
Our allowance of meat per person for consumption is aimed for restriction by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with the UN over the remaining part of this decade.
They aim to allow us to consume the equivalent of one beef burger, two portions of fish and one or two eggs per person, per week by the beginning of the next decade (2030). This will not be difficult to create or enforce. Look at the seemingly "impossible" day-to-day restrictions that people have already accepted in the blink of an eye, and by most, welcomed!
Just google something like "future allowance of meat for personal weekly consumption", and there it is!
How is this already being carried out? Policy changes are signaled to governments for implementation from the World Economic Forum in collaboration with the UN, and these are implemented by the bureaucrates regardless of elected government.
The reshaping of the agricultural industry is part of that process. A change of agricultural production is in process.
I was worried about my BBQ once the gas ban kicks in. At least I won’t be needing it now as it’s not worth firing up for my single beef burger. The Webber adverts will look a bit underwhelming.
Should help sort the obesity epidemic though. It’s important to look for the positive.
As one protestor said on TV " Just leave us alone and Trust us" - well we have and it hasnt worked. Hiding in a cave and saying nothing is changing is delusional.
Boomers are fading, Im one, and the next generations are taking over and its this power shift which is confusing many oldies.
The market is also forcing the change along with young people leaving the regions for better opportunities and jobs. Our primary products continue to shrink as a % of GDP and will carry on shrinking.
Change is going to happen faster than ever and combined with Demographics will push us into a new world.
3 waters - stealing "Assets" - Yeah right - poorly managed assets which are actually a major liability more like it for many councils - councils run by people who promised lower rates , no expenditure etc etc for the past 20 years. It may not be perfect but I am very happy to see this change rather than bankrupting ratepayers in rural areas - farmers are already moaning about rates, well keep the water assets and rate rises havnt even started yet. - be very careful what you wish for.
Its to do with treaty settlement claims. No ownership can change on land or assets under claim.
On a nationwide basis , it is bound to cover some areas under claim.
Maori will not own the land , but have a say in its guardianship. Afaik , they don't stand to gain financially (significantly )from it .
Its simply having input as per the treaty - A signed contract - Im sorry but it just shows the deep underlying racism that exists in NZ. I have never been able to understand why people are upset about an asset being managed or owned by Maori. They seem happier for it to be sold offshore.
Big Boys Toys are the focus of NZders' adulation. Everybody NZder felt pride as Peter Beck's Rocket Lab buggered off from NZ to pursue much (financially much, much) greener pastures in the USA, leaving only a token presence in NZ which we all no will eventually whittle down to nothing. Auckand University School of Engineering has made the erstwhile fitter and turner an Associate Professor of Engineering. Whopee!
Then there's Zero who no sooner made a name for themselves than they quit the NZX all together and set up on the AUX.
And there's Peter Jackson (a children's film director) and the NZ America's cup aficionados (it's a billionaires' minority sport for god's sake) all making a name and money for themselves with large handouts from the NZ taxpayer.
When are we going to put taxpayer money behind something that will really benefit the country like dealing with cows' urine (climate change) and mental health (the latter all talk but no walk). We have the scientists and talent but they are largely neglected as not being glamorously high-proflie enough.
Nzders are at heart stupid.
There's just enough truth in CT's comments to begin an argument, which he duly does once again. He's good. Shame he's a communist. The only balanced part of this article was his summation at the end, but CT never sets out to be balanced. Never has. And probably never will. I enjoy his commentary even though I don't necessarily agree with most of it. That's good for me. It makes me think. The real issue lies in the gap. The huge gap that is opening up in our culture, & probably has been since 1969, with most of us at one end or the other & not that many in the middle any more. Hmmm. The problems of an extreme world perhaps? The gap is a result of the transition of power (& wealth) from one people group to another - from the old to the young. This is to be expected & was true in my day as well, with the generation gap etc. The big issue we have today is from the completely different education (most of) our children receive compared with 40-50 years ago. Govt run education is truly political, probably always has been in my time, but the lack of any real world understanding &/or experience from today's govt is not easily seen, nor understood by many. This lot are true idealists. That's not to say we weren't, because that's where it started, it's the fact that they don't really understand how lucky they/we really are. It's taken the best part of a 1,000 years to get a society this good. Famines, plagues, wars, pestilences, bad royalty, thugs, murderers, thieves were all part of the journey. Nationalism was rife & no one trusted their neighbours, and they had good reason to. History is full of such. As I write this, fully 4 fifths of the planets population live a life that you & I wouldn't want. How do I know this. Well, I've been around & to prove it, it almost killed me. I still live today with the down stream effects of those early decisions, to travel, not to tour, & I can tell you that even in the most fanciful of places (LA) there are large parts of the place that you do not wish to wonder down. Even during daylight hours. And here's my point I suppose. Be very grateful for what you are & where you are, every day if possible, for still today most do not have, nor will ever have what you & I have got. No, it's not perfect. They don't call Earth Satan's Kingdom for nothing, but even through all the ills & spills we are currently experiencing (& for us we can measure it in the millions) that what life offers you & I today is still bloody good when compared to what 80% of the planet's population calls life. Yes, today. If you don't believe me then I've got a suggestion of where you could start looking. Russia for one.
Thanks for the interesting thought stream!
Yes, 1969 also felt to me like a climactic year. My impression is it set up some dreams that faded by the end of the 70s, and parts linger. It's all left me pretty cynical. I think what has really happened is that NZ was well positioned to capitalise on the one-off, fossil fuel powered bonanza, and it's position as Britain's farm. People have no trouble being egalitarian when there are plenty of resources, and having a fairly homogenous cultural mix helps.
So now the resource pressures are piling on, and as you say, we see more polarisation. Fewer of us remember the days when we didn't really bother locking the house. It's still a good spot in lots of ways and it's worth remembering that. I have this ominous feeling that NZ is going to end up fairly overcrowded and then impoverished by a global energy crisis that degrades our ag exports, and we are left with only minor bits and pieces to replace it.
whilst i think the ute tax is flawed, if they wanted to encourage the take up of electric vehicles they should have removed the fringe benefit tax for vehicles for businesses, they would have flooded the market in about 5 years with plenty of second hand electric vehicles for ordinary folk to buy.
the farmers just came off as disgruntled national supporters whom party is not doing well so have taken up the cause to try to help out. the messages were all mixed signs for everything under the sun, what were they protesting again, ute tax, 3 waters, no vax, communism in NZ , end MIQ and all sorts of others, not to mention the maga hats worn by many.
i dont think they did themselves any favours with city folk to win the support they need and while the original premise of the argument, the ute tax has merit it has now turned into a rabble and will be seen in the same light as a brian tamaki demonstration
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