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Residential property sales volumes down 22% in October year-on-year, but prices were through the roof

Property / news
Residential property sales volumes down 22% in October year-on-year, but prices were through the roof
Glasses of Champagne

The number of residential properties sold throughout New Zealand increased to 7190 in October, up from 5518 in September but down 21.7% from the 9185 properties sold in October last year, according to the latest figures from the Real Estate Institute of NZ.

In Auckland 2576 sales were recorded in October, down 20.3% compared to the 3234 sales in October 2020.

In the rest of the country excluding Auckland, 4614 properties were sold in October, down 22.5% compared to 5951 sales in October last year.

Prices remained extremely firm, with 10 of the REINZ's 16 regions posting record median selling prices in October.

The national median selling price hit a record $895,000 in October, up by $170,000 (23.4%) from October last year.

In Auckland the median selling price has increased by $250,000 in the last 12 months, from exactly $1 million in October 2020 to a record $1.25 million last month.

Record prices were also set in Franklin on Auckland's southern boundary where the median price hit $1 million for the first time, meaning prices in the district have increased 36.1% since October 2020.

For the rest of the country excluding Auckland, the median price was $753,000 in October, up by $153,000 (25.5%) compared to October last year.

Three regions had annual median price increases that were above 30% - Hawke's Bay 37.7%, Taranaki 31.1% and Canterbury 31.0%.

In the Wellington region the median price was up 26.8% compared to October last year while prices in Otago were up 11.8% (see the chart below for all regional prices).

REINZ chief executive Jen Baird said lockdown restrictions were having a reduced impact on the market.

"Real estate professionals have the resources to conduct business remotely and customers/clients have have the confidence to move forward to make decisions," she said.

"It is expected that sales activity across New Zealand will continue to rise in coming months, as as restrictions ease further, travel limitations lift and those who previously held back listing their property do so.

The demand is certainly there," she said.

The interactive charts below track the monthly median selling prices and sales volumes for all regions of the country.

Note: REINZ price and sales volume figures are provisional and subject to revision.

The comment stream on this story is now closed.

Median price - REINZ

Select chart tabs

NZ total
Source: REINZ
Northland
Source: REINZ
Auckland
Source: REINZ
Waikato
Source: REINZ
Bay of Plenty
Source: REINZ
Gisborne
Source: REINZ
Hawke's Bay
Source: REINZ
Manawatu
Source: REINZ
Taranaki
Source: REINZ
Wellington
Source: REINZ
Tasman
Source: REINZ
Nelson
Source: REINZ
Marlborough
Source: REINZ
West Coast
Source: REINZ
Canterbury
Source: REINZ
Otago
Source: REINZ
Southland
Source: REINZ

Volumes sold - REINZ

Select chart tabs

NZ total
Source: REINZ
Northland
Source: REINZ
Auckland
Source: REINZ
Waikato
Source: REINZ
Bay of Plenty
Source: REINZ
Gisborne
Source: REINZ
Hawke's Bay
Source: REINZ
Manawatu
Source: REINZ
Taranaki
Source: REINZ
Wellington
Source: REINZ
Tasman
Source: REINZ
Nelson
Source: REINZ
Marlborough
Source: REINZ
West Coast
Source: REINZ
Canterbury
Source: REINZ
Otago
Source: REINZ
Southland
Source: REINZ

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121 Comments

Key, Ardern and Orr must be so proud of themselves. It's all going according to plan....

They make Madoff and our very own David Ross look like amateurs, who's only mistake was - getting caught before similar plans bore fruit. What a difference Central bank backing makes, eh!

Up
21

You missed Clark. Prices rose faster under her than they did under Key. But most people see what they want to see. 

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13

Great Dic....tors (they too called themselves leaders)  divided the society based on ideology, they all had one be it based on religion, nationality, colour...  and here in NZ, it is based on money/house - great divide between house owner and those who cannot even dream of owning a home.

Just like dic..tors who could and always justified their action - even here all those responsible for this do and will justify.

 

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13

Golly gosh, old chap, there seems no end to these bothersome price increases.

Better get in now - before it's too late!

TTP

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6

(DP)

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0

Every property investor must be feeling like the smartest kid on the block.

Absolutely sure tulip investors of 300 years ago were heard to utter the same phrase time and time again - until time ran out.

"Better get in quick. The price will be higher tomorrow!"

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6

Well, in fairness some of them were smart enough to be born at the right time. Gotta credit them that.

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2

Mate, your FOMO skills know no end. You must be proud of yourself at the end of the day.

Up
1

Hi b21,

How about a joint-venture?

You put up the moolah - and I'll manage our tenants.....

TTP

Up
4

Not surprised your answer had something to do with joints.

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4

Point taken.

But perhaps Clark, didn't know any better. Key onward not only did, but chose to encourage what they knew was wrong (they campaigned on fixing the problem). The only rational explanation is that they thought the alternative was worse. Now, not only is it worse, but catastrophically worse.

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10

That's the thing.  Yes they rose under Clark, but given the lagging nature of the data by the time you realize there's a problem, the problem is already there.  I thought we voted Key in because National were much more competent.  

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6

I did. Key was the most disappointing PM ever for his about face on the housing crisis and productivity problem.

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2

As someone who specifically voted for Ardern on her promise to deal with housing and now seeing the worst house appreciation of all time I find this a strange statement to make.

Key said it was a great problem to have hardly someone who could be trusted to make housing cheaper.

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3

You're describing a rinse and repeat of John Key in Ardern on housing, which is fair enough. Key said it was a good thing after getting in power, after saying it was a crisis while campaigning.

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1

median 1.2 breached...........Orr thinks they have have DTIs ready in about 6 months........

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4

Six months from March or six months from March 2022 .....2023 as still wait and watch.

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7

What kind of future are we creating for our country? And none in media seem to be talking about it. 

The media is hand in glove with the rich. Rich own media and they only want to publish what benefits them. 

Even all the politicians are rich. Average poor Joe has no chance in this county. NZ is the playground and holiday house of the rich of the  world. I suggest young to study and leave to never come back. NZ will import uber drivers and cleaners and that's all we need to keep the rich happy and work on their bach houses. 

 

Up
12

Intergenerational wealth theft. Live up large off debts the next generations must shoulder.

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3

You are sounding like a broken record RickStrauss.  I can't see why you think Boomers (you have often referred to this particular generation in other comments) are entirely to blame for the financial woes of the following generations.  I am a 'Boomer' but have achieved some degree of financial security not because it was handed out on a plate to my generation but because I worked hard and most importantly avoided debt along the way as much as I could.  Avoiding debt was the most common approach that prevailed in the post-war decades.  I do not own any investment property and from what I have seen it is almost as much Gen X who own multiple properties as the vilified Boomers. As my generation made its way through adult life we simply never indulged in things like going on overseas trips with the kids to the Pacific Islands or Australia, having a European car v. a cheap Asian car, needing a glossy magazine wedding as a pre-requisite to the start of married life, buying the right home in the right suburb and in the right school zone (reality property television shows might have a bit to answer for here), etc., etc.  These all have to be paid for.  Whilst I agree this is a massive generalisation on my part and does not apply to every Gen X and younger families, but it is these largely 'image is everything' aspirations that have all served to push up the cost of living for everyone.  If you think Boomers now have it all without the debt then maybe it is just because they either worked hard for it in the first place or more likely the inflation of the 80's and 90's took care of their debts.  However, beware of this fickle thing that is inflation.

Plus, while I'm on my soapbox, if you think that university study was completely free for Boomers, then think again.  Sure course fees were cheaper then and we didn't actually have student loans (which now fairly allow those who don't have the money to still get their degree 'meal ticket') but then nowhere near as many of us Boomers actually attended university.  Back then it was only if the career choice demanded attendance and we could actually afford it (plus meet the qualifications for entry). These-days everyone seems to think that a degree is the minimum requirement to measure one's educational worth and so there are now tertiary courses 'for Africa'. Consequently all fees have had to go up to support the necessary academic megalith that now exists to achieve this.  If the basic degree options (Arts, Science, Commerce, Law, Medicine, Engineering, etc.) were all that were offered at the universities as a multi-year degree instead of just about everything under the sun, then the overheads for these institutions would be so much lower and student fees would likely be far more affordable.  Specialist courses outside the core academia could be stand-alone. But then again I guess we need to employ everyone out there in some capacity so the academic ante, like everything else, must keep on being raised. 

So RickStrauss, I'm afraid I don't buy into this blame game that seems so fashionable these days to heap upon the Bloomers.  That is an all too easy off-load as the cause of the financial stresses in modern life (of which there are far too many), not to mention the wide disparity between the haves and the have-nots in our society. However, judging by your repeated posts on this particular matter I doubt that you, along with too many others, will agree with this viewpoint but then perhaps you have only experienced a post-Boomer's life.

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3

100%

 My parents and myself knew how to be frugal. Vegetable garden, never ate out (ok, maybe once a year), alcohol (nope), SKY TV (what a waste), clothes second hand or K-Mart. Irony is I see a lot of people consumering to the max and they have nothing behind them. It's like a drug.

Have I told everyone about my 2002 Honda Jazz, 185,000km?

 

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1

Say it with me everybody, "WAIT AND SEE".

Up
8

Never wait, just buy and HODL.

 

People where saying "Just wait and see" last year and they year before that, they got crashed. Government wants to make you rich, all you have to do is buy. Next leg up will be border reopening.

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5

I'm talking about Orr, not property speculators.

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7

Guv' Orr has no greater level of insight into the property market than the Prime Minister when she said "House prices can't keep skyrocketing" in 2020.

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2

HODL - Hang on for Dear Life ?

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8

Some houses won't be on the market until the 5 year Brightline period expires.

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1

..I suspect brigthline test won't be relevant.

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3

Unless forced to sell, no sound minded person would sell and pay 39% tax on their gain if inside the older 5 year period.

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2

Few would unless you are one of the D`s

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0

Jeez, my business pays 28%, and then the rest on dividend pay out. Why should you be allowed tax free CG's, its obviously the intent from the outset.

And I actually have to work for mine.

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9

You can get tax-free capital gains too, when you sell your business.

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3

Touche!

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0

But being realistic, the primary business of many/most property investors is trading property for profit. That should be taxed rather than us all pretending.

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5

The picture used for this story sums up everything wrong with our attitude to housing in this country. This is not a celebration for anyone younger and/or lower income. You may as well have just used a photo of someone pulling the fingers at the camera.

Up
22

They should show a young person holding their passport.

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12

And change the headline to “deposit required increases by $50k in a year”

Up
12

Cheers to our great leaders. May we all* continue to prosper in the worlds number one country, Jacindastan!

* "All" is a term referred to as those who are part of the worlds greatest wealth creation scheme**, not the peasants who refused to stop eating smashed avocado in the name of purchasing a 80m2 castle in the almighty Jacindastan.

** "Worlds greatest wealth creation scheme" is a term used to describe a scheme where the Great Adrian Orr provides money to banks to lend courageously to endearing young entrepreneurs looking to purchase a castle.

Up
12

Our venerated leader made her call,  based her knowledge,  on the sale of the house across the street. Now if that has not “resold” how can anything at all have changed. And besides, even if it had “resold” she wouldn’t have known about it, because she hasn’t been there to see it do so.

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4

Hmmmm.... dangerous bubble territory now - especially for those thinking immigration once borders open will hold the market up. The changes overnight to NZ super will be a big deterrant for immigration moving forward. 

Up
16

Very much so. 

1) no immigration at the moment

2) raising interest rates

3) greens looking good for 2023 (wealth tax)

 

Up
5

Beware The Greens......... that lot would soon reduce us to third-world status.

TTP

Up
8

The number of people who would benefit more than they would lose from a massive economic collapse grows by the day. The higher property prices go, the more young people there are with no stake in the stability of the system and every incentive to vote for politicians who intend to bring it all down. There comes a point where, ironically, it's economically rational for a lot of people to be militant socialists...

Up
20

National's perspective always seems to be that of what most boomers think and supporting boomer interests. They will be remembered for that and doesn't bode well for their future... Labour while better, is looking after boomers more than you'd expect. I'll probably vote TOP next time, and one day they might hit the 5%.

Up
6

Likewise. I hope TOP keep trying... there may come a day when people grok that Labour never, ever actually deliver what they promise, and that the Greens have great values but a poor grasp on reality...

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8

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/covid-19-delta-outbreak-labour-d…

Looks like the people are loosing faith in Jacinda, and the Labour party, now we need a party to act like an opposition party!

I must say the last little while has illustrated the complete lack of political diversity, we could simply regard the current parties as being cut from exactly the same cloth.

Up
4

Don't know about militant socialism but agree with Jessie that voting TOP for the tax base change is the best option by a long way for the housing disenfranchised. Universal land tax targeting debt speculation tax avoidance, and lower income tax supporting working. Just makes more sense every day this continues.

 

Up
6

ikimpaul

Agreed . . . . Hmmmm.

Need to also keep in mind that Auckland data although "October" will largely be based on agreements entered into just prior to lockdown. Be interesting to see data over the next few months as despite strong Auckland auction data, the full impact of Covid lockdown on Auckland sales is yet to be included.   

Are we in "dangerous bubble territory now"? One thing seems certain - with so many factors such as rising interesting rates, recent low immigration rates, increased supply, increased affordability issues, recent changes to LVRs - it would seem that clearly continuing price rises are unsustainable. 

Currently a high level of uncertainty and I feel very cautious. 

 

Up
1

The markets still running hot at the moment. I'm following recent sales. 

Up
5

Maybe not.

It just incentivised every migrant to invest in property to secure their own retirement as the NZ government is deemed unreliable and perceived as the sole beneficiary of their contribution.

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2

Greg Ninness, this $250000 Is from last 12 months but from Match to September last year, it was up by $200000  to $300000.

Can you check how much from start of panademic till now as it should be anywhere between $450000 to $550000, If not more.

Now if anyone confront Mr Orr and Robertson their response will bevthat this is past data and going future market was cooling and this was what they said in March ( After tweaking housing policy by Robertson in February, Mr Orr's statement in March was that he has data / information that housing market was cooling, BUT DID IT so no need to do anything and will look at LVR after few months and DTI, God knows when as still thinking, if still thinking on DTI, Question is that did they ask for DTI as a tool without preparation and thinking)

It is a farce played by government of all political parties and RBNZ on average Kiwi.

 

Up
7

since panademic house prices have gone up by about $500000 so anyone after slogging and having $200000 now has no value .....

When will Government and RBNZ understand that house price should rise but not 50% - 100%.  JACINDA ARDEN HAS CREARED HOMELESS SOCIETY WITH DECEN DEPOSIT AND HAS DIVIDED THE COMMUNITY. THOUGH ALL GOVERNMENT HAVE DONE BUT CREDIT OF USING PANADEMIC TO EXPOLOITING THE SITUATION/CRUSIS AND TAKING PONZI TO POINT OF NO RETURN DEFINITELY GOES TO EMPATHY QUEEN WELL SUPPORTED BY RBNZ.

Will Mr Orr turn a blind eye even in next meeting on 24th Nov and not go with least regret approach will be a pity.

Up
8

Jacinda took her private jet to Awkland to see what she had done to houses there. Twas only a brief visit there as she was blinded by the economy involved in a simple trip and the State the Nation has become in her Honour. The simple fact is she wasted more in one day than it would take to fund a Council House Deposit and to house the poor and needy. Plus I will not mention the Climate Change improvements this trip negated by a so, so serious World Leader in dropping emissions.

Taint just Houses we should Lord about...here. It should be the Ponzi effects and the dismal climate effects these illustrious Leaders all wasted on the way to Talk alot in Scotland, but achieve only a waste of money and elevate their peerage with protestors. No small wonder Debt is growing by the trillions and Tesla and their over rated cars and trips to the moon and back are worth so much to the Faltering ........................E-conomy. Oh and I will not mention China and Ever-ever Grande Houses and the Like.

Dropping like a stone like the Stock Markets around the World.....will have to get China to make a few more Evs to change the Fund-a-mentals. All Talk...no saving any E-conomy. Smog must be glouding their judgement, if the World needs Leaders who could Save a Dollar not just waste their time.....wasting it. Printing money is not saving the Planet.....but what the hell do I know....Common Sense went out the window of these Folk, many, many slums and Mansions ago.

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5

Natbour seem united on keeping house prices up. Young people won't want to jump to am even more dangerous National who only want to exempt investors from all tax and have workers pay all the tax.

TOP and even Greens seem like the only viable options for young Kiwis.

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0

With Evergrande now in default, the tide is turning with the hot money flowing into property. 

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1

This was already expected, labour has deceived kiwis big time.

Housing or elimination strategy labour is a big failure, renters and kiwis on lower-income bracket better move to Aus, there are many cities where you don't have to mortgage your life for roof on your head and salaries are better also.

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12

'Labour' or 'labour', we have been deceived!

Why work (*labour) when you can speculate on housing?

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2

To be fair it's mostly the RBNZ doing this with some government stimulus also getting into housing, and people having nothing else to do with their time. National would never have removed interest deductibility, they would have lowered the bright line test and reintroduced foreign buyers (as per their policy plans).

Labour have disappointed by not introducing the capital gains tax and saying things like "people expect housing to go up" which has given credibility to the housing price boom and helped it continue. They also no longer talk about affordable housing, it's now sustainable, which means they don't want prices to fall, again giving buyers more confidence. They don't seem to understand the signals that they are sending.

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4

I think she understands her signaling perfectly, she is simply encouraging moral hazard.. I remember last year a few days after Orr tried to talk housing down as he said it is a consumable 'something you use'; she went on to tv to explain 'house is the the biggest ASSET most kiwis have', plus some more bs about what ppl expect.

If the PM of any country indicates is safe to go all in, ppl will trust and follow, she was/is consciously encouraging this madness moral hazard one way casino.

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1

Can we agree that economists predictions are incredibly inaccurate. Just think about all the economists predicting price falls over the last few years. Just take a breath and think about how completely inaccurate their predictions are.

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2

Fair enough but just remember, even if they are throwing darts in the dark, they could still hit the bullseye one day!

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1

Agreed. But then why give their predictions any more weight than anyone or anything else? Certainly don't make a news articles about it because people assume economists predictions are more accurate than random chance. However, they are utterly full of sh*t. 

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0

Great job Auckland . Isn't that what we say to people who do great in their jobs and get rewards.

Houses are going a great job. Who needs a real job anyway.

 

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3

Love the Picture - Ardern and Orr celebrating success.

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1

There's still room for upward valuation.

Be quick!

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2

Guess jacinda daughter already has a house brought for her so she doesn't see what problem is, happy days for them. Why those in lower social spectrum still vote labour after they basically destroyed their children's future is beyond me

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8

Daddy moved a little Wendy House to save them from having to buy her a real expensive one. Cheap as chips....if ya can find the land to plant Wendy in...that is.

Up
0

How about this for a headline; 

Unrealistic $250,000 Pump in Median House Price in 12 Months - Incomes Static.

10 More Years Needed To Pay Mortgage For Most Kiwis.

(Cause for celebration?)

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4

Quite incredible but whilst there is quite possibly some more price increases over the coming summer,  I stand by my earlier call that price rises will completely evaporate and quite possibly go down over the second half of 2022

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5

How do you feel about the timing of selling your house Yvil?

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3

I think the chances for a fast sentiment change are increasing and it may even cause a panic. Especially if inflation remains stubbornly high. Net migration could easily go negative next year and we are building a huge amount of houses. People might wake up from the bad covid nightmare and rediscover travel and other things in life other than property.

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3

Where are Mike Kirk and his legion of DGMs? a good time to revisit their predictions for the past 12 months. Good times for those who can think for themselves and execute a plan. Property owning folk well positioned for a strong summer of sales! 

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4

When you say DGM you mean the people that think prices should go down right?

TBH it seems like the folks still cheering on these price rises are better suited to the title nowadays.

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4

You could at least have some dignity in your "victory".

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2

Haha, yes, well said, screw the next generations eh buddy! Gotta keep houses pumped for older folks!

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0

Complete prick of a headline photo.

Up
9

Complete prick of a headline photo.

The image is symbolic of the 'wealth effect.' The sheeple think it's about some natural law. House prices double every 7-10 years or something. They don't understand that their monetary system is being undermined and destroyed, nor do they think about how vulnerable and unstable everything is socially, economically, and financially. They haven't really thought about the whys and the hows. They don't understand why they'd be better off with low house prices and for an economy built on productivity and savings,     

Up
5

Its all good, our kids will be able to buy a home in the metavers. no problem here

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3

I'm buying. That's where the smart money is. 

Up
1

Did 700% on a metaverse token recently. Happy days.

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0

I live in a city of ~90000 and have done so for most of my life. I have been around long enough to see change and its impact on my home town. There is so much focus on wealth at the moment with property leading the charge.

What I have seen in recent years is a huge change for the worse in our society. I see people on the streets homeless every day, where as only a few years ago there were none. I see motels/hotels over run with emergency housing where you are to afraid to walk past, I see people so desperate to own a home they will do ANYTHING to purchase, I have seen the cost of living skyrocket, I see young people harming themselves, killing themselves because they feel so overwhelmed and hopeless, I see huge mental health issues and a health system that is crumbling, I see people turning on each other.......focusing solely on themselves.....uncaring of anyone else's dilemma. 

And I see people celebrating within their own elite self serving groups, gloating of huge gains in property and admiring their own financial wizardry in achieving the life long dream of wealth, the meaning of life. But just like the environment we so often go on about but do little to change, we are leaving our kids a socially divided and disfunctional wasteland that they will remember us for for many years to come.  

But hey, we are making money right so who cares.

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26

We are catching up to other developed countries like the US where you literally step over the homeless to get into a restaurant or your house. Honestly, for most Maori things haven't really changed much. Sure, there is more Te Reo by the liberal elite (RBNZ) but really things are still the same for the most part.

Up
8

What more can we do to help Maori?  Is it a Maori issue, or is it a lifestyle choice issue? 

 

Where Maori have more of a propensity to make lifestyle choices that disadvantage themselves, and the same outcomes are seen through any other race that makes similar choices.    

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1

I really wasn't making any observation other than the "we and our kids have had our futures stolen by Ardern" mantra is by and large a Pakeha narrative. Maori have always struggled to get access to finance and middle class jobs.

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4

Haven't you seen the bank ads on TV? Seems like they mostly give mortgages to couples who are, at least, bi-racial. Surely those depictions are based on reality, surely...

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2

As with politicians and business leaders taking a private jet to a climate conference, you look at what they do and not what they say.

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0

There are many wealth Maori and Maori corporations, Iwi etc. 

But you never hear about them doing anything to increase the wealth of their communities. 

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0

No, we are catching up (down?) With many developing nations. The degree of wealth inequality is far worse in NZ than Western Europe. Aside from a select few places in the US, I'd argue the same applies.

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0

Really? I count at least 10 Western European countries with higher Gini coefficient than NZ in 2019.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_inequality

 

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1

Apparently you have to break a few eggs to make an omelette and the younger generations are just not as important as enriching older property investors. 

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5

The majority of the change happens in the last 5 years.

You should thank Queen Jacinda, top notch contribution to our society.

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0

Kind of ironic that while the sheeple in NZ are celebrating house prices, Evergrande is defaulting and being served bankruptcy notice.  

Up
6

The party is coming to a end a lot of people think they are millionaires but unless you sell quickly this paper wealth will evaporate and many of the greedy will end up evergrand  bankrupt. Houses are for family’s to live in not for speculation 

Up
9

How does Evergrande's bankruptcy effect New Zealands housing market? 

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1

Though Evergrande was always a Ponzi scheme, China seems to understand they're NOT issuers of the reserve currency and are willing to accept business cycles/failures.

Evergrande has sold its private jet(s) and their management team has pledged [forced probably] their mansions.

Up
3

China has recognised what the USA, primarily, hasn't - yet.

There is a choice - devalue the currency, and so the very medium that supports asset values (How much is an asset worth if no one wants to exchange it for 'valueless' cash? Barter value?) or devalue the price of assets (default on debt etc) and retain, or increase, the purchasing power of the currency.

The USA has one privileged need to do the latter, because it issues the Reserve Currency of the World, and if it loses that right, what has it got that will allow it to buy whatever anyone else has to sell? (China, predominantly).

Having sky-high asset values backed by ever-increasing debt does not square with having the World's Reserve Currency. One of those things is going to have to give, and losing the capacity to issue the Reserve Currency actually defeats High Asset prices in the end, anyway. So the way forward should (!) be obvious. "When "should be all we don't know.

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1

I had not been around for a while but it is quite disappointing that the moderators won't do a thing about all trolls on this website: there are just a few but the amount of noise they make it is considerable. Some of them would spend their entire days around just dropping stupid FOMO comments and pressing like to each other, who knows who's paying for their time, it is responsibility of interest.co.nz to do something about it.

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6

Lol, don't like reality so censor it til it turns into a palatable (to you) circlejerk.  Nah. Let's not. 

Or are you going to surprise me and also call for the removal of semi-literate repetitive whinges from the usual suspects too? 

Up
1

Some took the hint?

Up
0

rough calculation ofthe impact of these prices combined with lifting rates

Buyer A bought at the median price of $725K in Oct last year. Assuming Buyer A had a 20% deposit ie 145K and then borrowed 580K  fixed for 12 months at the rate then of 2.29%. Repayments would have been $2229 per month

Buyer A is now refixing at 3.49%- repayments are now $2601- or $370 more per month

Buyer B buys now  at the $895K median price, Again assuming they have a 20% deposit of $179K - they borrow $716 and fix for 12 months at $3.49%. Repayments are $3211 per month or $1000 more per month than last year.

Now to afford this house Buyer B would have needed to have a salary at least $20K higher than buyer A  and to have saved last year a minimum of 34K - to meet the new deposit requirement.

Does anybody else see the problem with the calculations above.

 

 

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The problem is that banks probably didn't do any of those calculations before issuing those mortgages.

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I checked yesterday and the average house price across the UK in April, was almost exactly half the price here. Even for London, the average price was slightly lower than here.

When I moved here from the UK 18 years ago, it was pretty much the other way round, though in part, that reflects the significant change in exchange rates. 

Even for the highly skilled migrants and Kiwis we want to attract, that must constitute a huge deterrent.

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Thats all pretty much exchange rate variation. Many years ago the pound was almost at 4 to 1 at one point, was typically at least 3 to 1 and now its 2 to 1. Their currency has almost halved in value over the years. You cannot really compare a house in London to a house in Auckland, its not the same "House". Overall the average person in the UK is living in a hole. 

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You also haven’t factored in that the average UK house is a 65sqm attached terrace on a cross lease. 
 

Apples with apples please Amigo. 

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Do you mean cross lease? I never heard of them in the UK, only discovered them on moving to NZ. My house was semi-detached in an area that's mostly terraced - no cross leases near me. 

Admittedly, it was about 80sqm but that is more than enough for a couple. Very cheap to heat an 80sqm house in a terrace, or a flat where you can share heat with surrounding units. 

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65-80sqm is no good for me at my stage of life and I'm the only one living in the house. Managed to "Down Size" from 200sqm to 170sqm but on a much bigger section in Tauranga. I have lived briefly in 60sqm and its not fun. All depends on you type of "Lifestyle" and your hobbies. The house here in Tauranga simply doesn't exist in London.

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I don't quite understand how buyers can keep pay more and more when lending is (supposedly) getting tighter and more expensive 

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We just had finance approved for an upgrade, at 5.3x household income.  When the transaction comes out in the wash as proceeds from sale we can potentially restructure this to under 4 x HHI.  Assessment rate is at 5.5%, which I found awfully low.  

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Hey Dan, if you don't mind can you tell me what bank that was?  We are refinancing at the moment and facing head winds at the ANZ.

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ANZ.  They're a nightmare.  I actually went through my mortgage broker, I always do even for mortgage top ups.  Even then the bank stuffed up the approval document, putting us in a bind and delaying us by a few days on going unconditional on the property.  Not ideal when you have a 3 day vendors escape clause.  

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Gifted money from parents? They have after all seen astronomical gains in their property wealth, why not share it around with the kids?

 

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V much dep on who is buying and what they are using for leverage. RBNZ don’t give that sort of granular detail of course. Just as they won’t explain why number of mortgages granted last 23 months was 100,000 higher than sales. Economy being based around houses as ATMs and leverage on additional value of 25%

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The stock photograph is about as disconnected from reality as a Lowe & Co billboard. Rocketing prices are nothing to clink a glass to, unless you're in a small minority of real estate agents or investors.

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God, the smug billboards that blight Wellington drive me insane!

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Same..real estate agents think they are gods at the moment

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Rates rising

Sales in Auckland 10% above 2016 level despite halving rates in interim and 16% rise in stock from new builds.

Surplus of stock now forecast by ASB

Recession inevitable as inflation exceeds wages rise by 3-4% here and in other countries. Plus growth engine of China stuttering whilst USA forecast growth now 2% for 2022 cf June 22 forecast of 6%
 

Price rises purely due now to inadequate supply of what people want to buy. 

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What are people experiencing in securing finance at the moment, as hearing reports of it being a lot different to even six months ago?

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I recently (last month) secured a loan with Westpac. I used a mortgage broker who was very good (initially I was told by another broker that banks wouldn't touch me because I earn USD). Changed to another broker and 3 of the big 4 would lend and it was pretty smooth sailing. I unfortunately have a very substantial mortgage but also a large income so DTI is about 3.5. From locking in my rates when 1 year was 2.85% I think Westpac have increased rates at least 3 times over the past 3 weeks. I am only n=1 but perhaps with the recent increase in swap rates banks are being more cautious?

 

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I always use a broker.  Whenever i've tried dealing directly with the bank they're a pain in the arse.

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We have exceptional equity and a cash deposit, so had no issue securing finance.  Was so much more scrutiny over expenses.

e.g. "What's this wheely bin hire, how often does it occur?"  "What's this swim school fee?"  "You ordered a $22 Uber Eats last Tuesday?".    

 

Felt like a villain for contributing to the economy.  

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I found that brokers are more pedantic than the banks themselves.

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