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The Reserve Bank now believes house prices are likely to fall right through from 2022 to 2024; says current prices are unsustainable

Property
The Reserve Bank now believes house prices are likely to fall right through from 2022 to 2024; says current prices are unsustainable

The Reserve Bank is now forecasting that house prices will fall in every quarter starting from the final quarter of next year all the way through to the third quarter of 2024 - which is as far as it is forecasting.

The RBNZ, which reiterated that current prices are not sustainable, has not previously been expecting house prices to outright fall. Previously it just saw them flattening.

It is forecasting a peak annual fall of -3.0%.

The RBNZ says prices will stop rising in the September quarter in 2022 (with a 0.0% outcome forecast) and then says prices will drop -0.3% in the December 2022 quarter. It then sees the falls picking up some pace, peaking with quarterly falls of 0.8% through much of 2023 and leading to an annual fall of 3.0% by early 2024. The final quarter included in the forecast range is September 2024 and the RBNZ says prices will drop -0.3% in that quarter and the annual fall will as of that time be -2.2% 

The forecasts, contained within the RBNZ's latest Monetary Policy Statement are much changed from the previous MPS document in May. That document anticipated that the housing package announced by the Government in March, coupled with new lending restrictions from the RBNZ would knock prices quickly, and a price rise of just 0.2% was seen in the current quarter.

In fact now the RBNZ sees a 5.2% rise in house prices in the current quarter, and annual house price inflation of just a tick under 30%.

But while it has changed its view of when the prices will stop to skyrocket, it has also very much changed its view of what happens when the skyrocketing stops. Previously it saw only flat prices in the future, now it sees falls.

In the report from the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Wednesday when deciding to leave the Official Cash Rate unchanged, the committee noted "the Reserve Bank’s assessment that the level of house prices is currently unsustainable".

The MPC says "a number of factors" are expected to weigh on house prices over the medium term.

"These include strong house building, slower population growth, changes to tax settings, and the ongoing impacts of tighter bank lending rules. Rising mortgage interest rates, as monetary stimulus is reduced, would also constrain house prices to a more sustainable level.  

"Members expressed uncertainty about how quickly momentum in the housing market will recede and noted a risk that any continued near-term price growth could lead to sharper falls in house prices in the future," the MPC report said.

In a special section dedicated to the housing market contained in the latest MPS document, the RBNZ says that with house prices above what is sustainable, "some form of realignment is anticipated".

'Prices look disconnected'

"However, as seen recently, momentum in house price growth can persist even when prices look disconnected from the fundamental factors that should determine them. This reflects that sentiment, expectations, and prevailing narratives surrounding the housing market can have a significant bearing on housing demand and house prices. The further house prices rise above their sustainable level, the larger the required realignment will need to be."

But the RBNZ says it is "not clear when and how a realignment of house prices will occur".

"Growth in household incomes could lift the sustainable level over time to a point where current prices would be sustainable. However, even if house prices stay at their current levels and incomes grow as they have historically, it would take eight years for house prices to return to the same level relative to incomes as in early 2020. Alternatively, falls in house prices could facilitate a faster adjustment towards a more sustainable level."

The bank then goes on to say it expects house price inflation to "moderate significantly" over the coming quarters.

"In our projection, house prices are assumed to begin to fall modestly from late 2022. A more significant fall in prices is possible, but at the same time, momentum in the market could prove more resilient than we expect."

Why prices will fall

In explaining some of the detailed reasoning behind what it is forecasting, the RBNZ says underlying demand for housing due to population growth has declined significantly since the outbreak of Covid-19 last year. While New Zealand citizens who returned from abroad before the pandemic stayed on and others returned early in the outbreak, this inflow was shortlived. Border restrictions have since limited inward migration, and there has been a small but steady flow of departing residents.

"Net migration is not anticipated to return to pre-Covid-19 levels over the next few years, even as border restrictions are eased," the RBNZ says.

"Meanwhile, house building is at record high levels. Residential building consents and discussions with construction sector businesses suggest there is a significant pipeline of new housing supply coming.

"Previous large increases in housing supply in New Zealand, such as that during the 1970s, reduced real house prices.

"In recent decades, several other countries have experienced declining house prices following significant increases in supply.

House building boom

"Building consents data suggest that by the middle of next year, the total number of houses will be growing at its fastest pace since data became available in the early 1960s. Policy changes that significantly ease land-use restrictions will encourage continued strong levels of building. Previous relaxations of land-use restrictions have contributed to sustained increases in new supply.

"Housing supply has not kept up with population growth over most of the past decade, increasing house prices and necessitating larger households on average.

"We consider this undersupply to already be reflected in current house prices. As a result, further strong house building will put downward pressure on house prices, even given the historical undersupply."

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133 Comments

Good news for FHBs and FHDs alike!

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Opinions are not news.

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The problem nowdays is that the media is more opinion than actual news.

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Great point and worth remembering every time one reads an "opinion". Quite often, you can see it for what it really is.

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Certainly is! More disposable income for businesses.

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RBNZ has a strong incentive to talk down house prices.......

Trust your own instincts.

TTP

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Oh good.

Because my instincts are that the entire NZ housing market is a giant turd crawling with flies.

Avoid.

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That would be in stinks.

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They also know that they intend to raise interest rates and that today’s prices just won’t be feasible to almost anyone then.

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Are you serious?

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Up 25% then fall 10%?

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You mean up 25% in a single year, then fall 10% over the course of 3-4 years... Alarming, isn't it.

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I am trying to make sense of this, last year price rise was around 30% third quarter this year to third quarter next is 30% which is 60% in 2 years then we see a price drop peaking at -3%pa?? Am I misunderstanding this?

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It is actually more than 60% using 2 years ago as the base line as the year 2 increases of 30% are off the prices that have already increased 30%. Either way, it's a lot!

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I hope so...we need a 30% fall.

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Depends. At 3/4x h'hold income to house price, it might be closer to 60+%.

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Yes, and as Govt. takes away the benefits of leverage and any deductibility, then if you look at it on a cash on cash investment, the prices have to come back by approx. 50%

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Prices will rise 30% then level off and fall 10% as our crystal ball tells us. Also we predict high tide will occur twice every 24 hours but low tide only once.

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Do you do Bitcoin? USD100k by the end of 2021?

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Do I do Bitcoin? I do the Cha Cha..

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Hope that comes to be.

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Empty words just to try to deflect criticism of their shocking performance and their totally destructive effects on the affordability of houses.
I will believe it when I see it. All that they have done to date, along with the government is do everything within their power to stoke the property ponzie.

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Words are easy. Words that prove to be true not so much. This typical political grandstanding, from an outfit that is meant to be independent from politics. What might be going on in 18 mths or so is anybody’s guess given what has gone on so far this century. Proclamations such as this will be by then overlaid by time and events, and the proclaimers themselves hardly likely to be put on the mat over wayward predictions subject to all that was found to be unpredictable at the time.

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Well said.

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RBNZ sees house prices falling after end of next year but WHAT BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT 18 MONTHS.

Officialy house prices are up 35% and in next tear if nothing done will be another 25%, if not 35% than even it calls by 10% will still be 50% up from panademic and 20% from now, so what shit are tbey talking.

Now with rise are shit scare of any fall, just imagine after 18 months with another jump, will they or can they afford it to fall - imoossible.

Besudes are talking about unsustainable house price so how can tbey allow that to cobtinue for another 18 months despite knowing.

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What does 'unsustainable' even mean? Have they defined it yet? Clearly it doesn't mean what it traditionally used to mean... If current prices can be sustained for years to come, as they state, then why label it unsustainable?
Is using that word a recognition of the ill effects the affordability crisis has on the country and its people? Or does it simply mean: "It cannot possible keep on growing like that!"?
Prices are clearly sustainable as long as enough credit is being pumped into the system. And as we've seen, that can be done pretty much overnight.

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I believe real estate agents before I believe RBNZ based on recent form.

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So, you won't buy a house from the Govner ?

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Nah, he's too busy buying "art works....."

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I have very little faith in the RBNZ, that's for sure. However, I don't think anybody can be less sincere than a real estate agent. I'd rather trust a second-hand car dealer than a real estate agent.

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I’ll believe it when I see it. Yet another “crystal ball”prediction.

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They said house prices would fall due to covid but still went up. Not falling for that trick again!

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No immigration and lots of building

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There is lots of wisdom behind this comment...

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Yes and yet people rushed to buy toilet paper AGAIN. People don't learn. There'll be FOMO building right now to buy homes.

No overseas holiday, let's buy a house and a new car. 2020 repeated all over again.

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Yeah but...
There was huge immigration until March last year, so an awful lot of houses need to be built before we are in over supply territory

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Are these immigrants just standing around in some room until a house is built for them?

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Dont forget all the Kiwi returnees standing in there as well. Its quite a full room according to reinz

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That one is explained by the excessive rents being charged?

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Now that they know that house price will not fall, in fact they accept it will also not be flat as earlier claimed but will keep on rising till end of next year .....So will they act between now and end of next year or Mr Orr will go with his policy of Wait And Watch.

How True Orr "fiddled while FHB burned"

Last year house price rose by 30% and excuse was that they - Orr and Robertson were caught by surprise BUT this year/ now they know still......... Media / Exerts should raise and expose this farce.

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Translating that. Prices will still end up over 30% higher than they were before covid. Most people not fortunate enough to own a home, could not afford the even the lower end of the market before covid, so they will never be able to afford a home within their foreseeable working life at prices 30% higher. I repeat that the only rational choice open to them is to leave NZ. To remain, is pure insanity.

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Think of a destination outside NZ that's remotely appealing to live that has tolerable migration laws.

Google that destination and add the words "housing affordability"

Click on the news tab

Read the same stories about that place as we get for NZ

Work out the costs to relocate, and work towards saving that as a deposit.

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The thing is that those other places where people are panicking about housing affordability are still relativelybmore affordable than us. When houses are 5x incomes, thats an affordability problem. But its still miles better than living somewhere where prices are 7 or 8x income.

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It's really just the same problem in a different location.

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Perth price to income ratio 4.8 Really nice city with nice people. Very prosperous with heaps of great opportunities.
Brisbane ratio 5.3 great geography and weather, pity about the Queenslanders, but you will find plenty of Kiwis and other immigrants to make up for that.
Adelaide 4.8 Very pleasant city and surroundings. Reminiscent of Christchurch as it was also developed by the Wakefield group.
There is a hell of a lot more to Australia than just Sydney and Melbourne. They are the last places that you should move to in Australia.
https://www.huntergalloway.com.au/brisbane-property-market-2021/
Plus a whole heap of other cities and countries around the world

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I lived in Adelaide for 3 years, very liveable city. Not much smaller than Auckland, and much more affordable.

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HouseMouse,

And with excellent wine areas nearby-McLaren Vale, Barossa, Adelaide Hills. We spent 10 days going round them a few years ago.

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There are many beautiful and highly desirable and liveable cities in AU: I lived for work reasons (for several months or a few years) in Adelaide, Brisbane, Perth and Melbourne and (apart from some areas of Melbourne) they are also way more affordable than Auckland.
Wages are also higher and the cost of living is lower. No-brainer if you are young and skilled.

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Be quick?

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Its done. The flatline is already upon us and the falls are coming.

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You must be living on another planet. My capital gain is reaching 500k within 12 months, half fully realised.

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I'd fully realise that paper gain if I were you. You are standing at the apex.

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Uncle Bulgaria,

The Wombles had many excellent qualities, but a high IQ was not one of them.

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RBNZ says that house price will fall from end of next year.

Can Mr Orr assure that he and his team not wrong this time as always has been, can he take personal responsibility.

IS IT NOT POSSIBLE THAT MR ORR AND HIS TEAM MAY PLAYING WITH TIME TO DEFLECT BY LYING AND MANIPULATING like in May they said that they had data/information that housing market is cooling but reality was were lying and trying to deflect / play with time.

SAME OLD TRICK

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Agree. Breaking News should be that as RBNZ is not interested in acting against housing ponzi ( which they were forced but delta Virus saved them) are trying deflect ...usual tactics as no one can argue with them or infact with with anyone when they say that .....correct are playing with time but for how long !!!!!

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Holy shite, it seems these guys really are as stupid as we think they are! However we are not as stupid as they think we are and see this for what it is, absolute toilet.

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I don't think they are stupid. They just are doing everything to keep house prices steady.
Well, they cannot just say that "house price is likely to go up 5% in the third quarter and we have no idea what's going to happen next"

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Ok, replace stupid with irresponsible.

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There really is no hope for those locked out of the market. I picked they wouldn't raise rates at all, covid or temp inflation & stopping the money printing was their excuses. Delivered on que. Statements & forecasts like this are just rubbish, rubbing it in as if we don't see it. The housing market is so stuffed they have no choice but to make it someone else's problem down the road.

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Haha. I would put as much weight on this as any other economist prediction ie. NONE.

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Yes, at the time for all those people that have bought off the plan to find out that the bank won't lend them the money to settle, and/or that material prices have gone up that much they can't afford to build anyway, and/or interest rates make it unaffordable, and the realization on what they signed up to over the last 6 months was at an overinflated FOMO price.

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I agree there are some risks building, especially the soaring costs of materials.

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Not where I am. 100% turn key with 50k deposit. Fixed costs.

Easy money.

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Have you settled yet?

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No, not built but fixed costs. I'm in no rush. Already gained 260k on an off the plan I settled a few months back.

There's already people wanting to buy but I'm waiting until summer to sell... it won't be finished by then but like I said people are rushing to buy anything.

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When you paid the 50K, is it in trust or has it been paid to the developer/builder?

Any builder who has given you a fixed price contract is either front-loading the price so much they can cover the increase in costs. ie you have already paid any inflated price, or they won't be able to complete the build.

And the off the plan you have settled on, do you still own it?

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50k to trust account.

I wasn't born yesterday hence how I managed to bank 260k into my account this year from the same area.

Yes, for the second off the plan the price was much higher than the first one, but since then asking prices for similar builds are 100k over what I agreed to just last month. I am repeating the process from my first purchase.

So simple and so risk-free. I am selling in summer before I settle.

This lockdown will only increase more FOMO. And thanks again Mr Orr.

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All this talk about oversupply etc - I know someone who owns 10 properties. Oversupply will be a long while away. Most new builds are being bought my investors.

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"I have 5 houses...and a condo."

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If you made 260k, and it is simple and 'risk-free' to make another pile buy putting a 50k deposit on a new build, why didn't you buy five?

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Some do, especially agents themselves then sell to their clients.

I don't because I choose not to. I'd rather do one at a time.

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Look, im not saying that was a bad decision. But it seems very odd that someone who had the money and the chance to make 500k 'simply and risk free' chose to instead only make 100k. Point being, its NOT risk free.

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You will lose a chunk to the tax man, but still go pretty well.

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What a pathetic prediction the tiny falls predicted are nothing compared to the expected 30% rise not even a rounding error if this is the best they can do they would be better to say nothing they are presiding over the largest out of control housing inflation in the OECD and they come out with drivel like this

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Don't sit around for years waiting for some paltry RBNZ bull**** to come true. It won't

Just leave, and take your tax dollars with you.

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As long as land prices, which determine the price increment of anything put on top, remain at 'unsustainable' levels, then all pronouncements from the usual suspects are simply all noise, no signal....

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Stop me if you think you've heard this one before.

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Yeah, and what difference does it make?

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But don't.....Panic
Haha

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With Northman in your name, maybe you are from Manchester and a Smith's fan?

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Real prices or nominal?? Could make a big duffernce esp if inflation creeps up

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That's a long list of sensible reasons to think property prices will fall.
Similar reasons were given last year, and property prices skyrocketed.
Prices have been rising 'unsustainably' for 10 years now -- yet they sustain.
What has changed? Everything except what matters.
Investors can still leverage their property based on inflated current values to purchase more property at even higher prices. The whole edifice appears sound because the 'value' of the underlying collateral has gone up so much. None of that has changed; ergo the dynamic driving housing will not change. From what I can see, anyone with equity is still gagging to buy more houses.

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There's been lots of sensible reasons for prices to crash over many years, but they never do.
But they will though, once the next financial crisis hits.

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True.

What is being pointed out is that the same factors that existed and lead to any of the previous crashes are playing out today but is multiplied both by the effect and also the amount of accelerates that are being poured into keeping this going.

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Time to start saving and keep it going for 2 years, in the hope we can afford to buy in 2024. Thanks Govner.

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Lol 3 percent drop... still 27% to make up and it still isn't affordable. Sure, back to Feb 2020 prices.

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"...This reflects that sentiment, expectations, and prevailing narratives surrounding the housing market...."
OMG! What waffle!
Really they do not have a clue. If they happen to go negative, what they say here will be as useful as an umbrella on a spaceship.

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" YEAH RIGHT "

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You have to laugh.
They didn’t raise today so conveniently they follow that up with an official statement designed to dampen. None of their predictions have ever been right.

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Correct. I'm living opposite a cluster of houses being built in Rangiora. There's been hardly any work been done in the last 3 weeks. No one works on weekends. Costs are rising rapidly, and we're not building enough. The security fencing and scaffolding companies are doing really well. There is no way house prices can fall

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How can the RB say such things, when who knows what's going to happen in this world between today and 2024 ??? As I have said before there will be something from overseas that comes along and "upset the apple cart" in NZ .....we are but a small dot on the other side of globe, spun around by that giant vortex, that is the international money markets.....and they will decide what happens. While Orr knows this and that he has no control over it ......wouldn't want his job for all the money in the world !!

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Instead of increasing the OCR as they should have done they hope that making this prediction will affect somehow people's decisions on whether to buy a home or invest in housing, it is plain and simple the RBNZ failing to do their job.

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What a joke...it's painfully funny

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The RBNZ have proven time and time again with their rubbish forecasts that either they haven't got a clue or they're deliberately misdirecting.

This table tells you everything you need to know about what's happening. An extra $50 billion of lending shovelled out the banks' doors into residential property over the last 2 years - that's a 19% increase on 2019.

Who would have thought prices would rise. Absolute CB ponzi madness.

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Okay great, so basically take the opposite of what they forecast, and I should be all good.

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This is a real shame that media are proudly highlighting once we of taking Mr Orr that they are bashedly saying that do what you want house price will rise for now and Only after end of next gear will it change.

So sorry David Hargreaves, instead of just reporting, if you had the ball will question, so what between now and end of next year.

Dare you openly, if have guts ask For, if he knew that will rise from now till next tear, What the F$#@ is he he trying to do.

Open challenge.

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Same thing they said last year.

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Aunty Cindy won't let the prices fall folks. I am doubling down on housing

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This mob would do a Kafka novel proud.

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But no one is feeling sick right? So what is the actual issue? Thanks.

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Depends on which side of the fence you are on.

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Taleb would have a field day unpicking this nonsense.

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I know that we should join FB to write this but the fact is that lock-downs are the real estate lobbies final melt-up trigger. Now all get back to your rooms please and don't talk to your renting neighbors.

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Govt & RBNZ clearly indicated they are not in mode to see house price fall. Now the above statement is a hope for fools believe it if you are one.
I don't think it will happen but if the price fall than it will be because of market not Govt or RBNZ, they clearly want to see it go up till people can afford no matter how.
If they come up with any rule or interest hike, than also they will be very mindful that market will not fall more than 3 to 5% & that to save there face if there will be media cry which Govt have already managed.
Now the question is how far it can go, summer is coming, there is indication of border to open & investors are cashed up with capital gains. AND PROPERTY IS ONLY BUSINESS IN NZ, so it will go up & up. Better to leave this country if you are renter, FHB or young Kiwi looking to start family today or in coming years.

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Prices will fall sometime in the next few years but not because of what the RBNZ describes.
It will be an external event, another financial crisis of some form.

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Neeeeeeeiiggghhhh !!! ......."crazy" as it seems, its got to the point where house prices can't go down .......the banks are up to their necks in mortgages of this non-productive asset ! ....so many businesses rely on the building of new houses and other related industries etc ......landlords rely on the tenants rents, to pay the banks the mortgages and the interest ....and it just goes on and on in a circle .......a classic ponzi scheme, where as soon as there is no money 'circulating' it all falls down in a heap !

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Last forecast was wrong and this one will be as well. If residential prices fall between 2022 and 2024 we'd have a hell of a recession in New Zealand.

We have a serious problem in New Zealand with economic forecasting, much of the information being published isn't even vaguely plausible. I can only hope no one is using this to make meaningful decisions.

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They are liars and manipulator to suit their vested biased interest. Should be ....

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Is there a list of all of their forecasts, compared to what has eventuated?

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That would be interesting, be good if a journalist held economists to account...

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Had delta virus and overnight they decide not to raise interest rrate...fair enough but when know about housing ponzi, Why not be as proactive and put measures to contain the house price and for God's sake do not ask us the measures as everyone knows.

Just go and f#$@ act
.

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https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/126110757/everyone…

Jacinda Arden and Mr Orr are culprit for not controlling FOMO leading to stampede........Worst crime deserves extreme punishment but alas in democracy such democratic dictators getaway. Sad but true.

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Didn't they also just say that their inflation figures show inflation is only around 2%, even through headline CPI is over 3% and inflation in the real world is a lot higher? Guessing any predictions need to be taken with a big grain of salt.

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In other words we have intentions to manipulation the financial and realestate market to intercede before the crash. About bloody time, but still too far from now. Also, my guess is they are already seeing their cash cow purchaser supply dwindling. Which reflects in my own lists of unsold realestate still looking for buyers after long periods listed and re-listings of withdrawn properties that didn’t sell the last time they were listed.

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A smile calcutuon on how disjointed the housing market is to salaries.
As an example, someone who earns 100k a year and gets approximately 70-74k in hand every year after taxes. So over working life of 30 years, this person will make 2.1 million dollars if he saves it all and not spend a cent.
At the current rate of house prices when every decent house is 1+ million, this person can either feed himself or own a house. God forbid if this person wants to have a hobby or two or want to travel,that's just not possible. If the person is married or has kids, their life is ruined. They will never be able to pay the house and their kids will take over the mortgage. This is what RBNZ and consecutive governments have done to the NZ housing market.

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Except no one is likely to earn the same money for 30 years straight unless they move down the career ladder every now and then. If he's earning $100K now, he'll likely be earning well over $200K in 30 years' time, even without career advancement.

Also, if he's earning $100K now and has 30 years left in his career then he's already had about 10 to 17 years to save money and build up a CV, so he goes in with a healthy deposit and bright career prospects.

Furthermore, he has the choice of marrying someone who is also earning, and has had a number of years to save. His partner may continue to work after having children, be it out of necessity or choice.

And the $1M house will almost certainly be worth (or valued at) more than $1M in 30 years, but if it doesn't go up a single cent then his income compared to house prices has ballooned over that time while his debt has reduced and his repayments are likely to become more and more manageable. After 30 years that mortgage is gone.

While I agree the current market is broken there's just far too many variables at play to try to model a simple scenario based on static numbers. If it makes any difference the scenario you've laid out isn't that far removed from my own situation in the not-too-distant past, right down to the wife (who does not and cannot work) and children, and I'm positive about the future.

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Notgreedykiwi your example is nonsensical

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Odd how this came out when Covid scuppered the interest rate hike. The continuation of low interest rates will keep demand buoyant. Talk is as cheap as money.

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This happened in 2016 - 20 after last mania of 2014-15, so not a cyclical surprise.
Plus RB due to raise rates all next year, so they will be clubbing price acceleration.
Prices also fell in 2008-11, but not by much.
The immigration supply line is out of date.
What will make an impact is inability to finish building stuff due to supply chain disruption and inflation.
Dev have quite a pipeline and will not see so much return a year out

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It's an uncertain world and many things might happen between now and 2024, but falling house prices is not one of them. The RBNZ and government do everything within their power to keep them rising. They will never let them fall in any meaningful way.

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Is that an iceberg I see?

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Hi David,

You mention : "The Reserve Bank now believes house prices are likely to fall right through from 2022 to 2024; says current prices are unsustainable"

Why from 2022 (Is it just to push the pressure to act and control to deflect for now) and WHAT about between now and end of next year ((15 months) - when they know that any tweaks till now have not had any effect WHY are they not taking rigid action on priority instead try to push it under the carpet.

If you David do not ask and highlight, who will. When Orr says what is did said, did you not think what the hell is he talking and knowingly (for last year, he said were caught by surprise as were unaware but this year).

He give reasons and excuses that does not stand but still experts like you fall for it, is it ignorance or lack of understanding or it too suits and media too is happy so why highlight.

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This is tantamount to someone claiming the families weight loss plans for the year are going to produce great results .... while they shove another 50 packets of timtams in the shopping basket.

The RBNZ has either completely failed to understand (or don't care) the link between their massive monetary stimulus and the impact its had on destabilising house prices - and jeopardising the financial stability of the country. Buffoons.

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dp

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triple post ... oops

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The RBNZs success rate at forecasting anything accurately let alone correctly is historically woeful.
Its housing forecasts will thus be no different despite continually distorting the market with ideological interventions which have not worked here or overseas.

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The biggest problem we have is a distorted housing market. Everyone gets tax free gains on their own house but rental properties are taxed. So logic says keep piling investment into your own home as capital gains will continue until low interest rates disappear. This will make housing affordability worse & cause rents to increase at a faster rate.

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NZ has a rent crisis that will escalate over next few years unless house prices come down to more affordable levels. This is best achieved through higher interest rates.
NZ is running out of motel space for emergency accommodation. Not a good look for our tourism sector when NZ starts opening up its borders.

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Printing of money & extremely low interest rates has caused NZ’s housing affordability crisis. Interest rates need to be raised so that housing prices & rents become more affordable.
This government has ignored renters & focussed on FHB. This has created the unfortunate situation of an ever increasing need for emergency housing & all the social problems that go with that

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All financial regulators fail in their mandates to police financial markets because each time they close down a rowdy bar the cowboys just ride to another town. What if the residential housing market were to be reclassified as a financial market, which it has become. Would people still be allowed to spruik? As we we've seen recently, even mentioning individual regulated investments anonymously on chat sites can incur criminal charges.

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Denominate in Bitcoin and chill.

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Yes, house prices may possibly be coolled-off by the same hand that heated them up. It will cause financial stress for thousands of over-leveraged households. And perhaps that was the plan all along. It's my guess based on knowledge that organisations such as Blackrock in the US and Lloyds plans in the UK, will be replicated by a similar organisation here in NZ. It will be all the easier to buy up residential properties in stress. It's ugly and will do it's bit in completely transforming the society we live in along with the momentum of the other "big one" in the news that will again cause unemployment and dependence on government handouts. All aboard the next big pump in time for the planned dump?

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