Analysis: The three Government announcements pundits expect next week

Labour leader Jacinda Ardern speaking at the annual party conference.

On Wednesday next week, Cabinet is likely to meet for the first time in 2023. 1News Digital Political Reporter Felix Desmarais asked some of those in the know what is most likely to come out of the first big political milestone of this election year.

Massey University politics professor Richard Shaw said a Cabinet reshuffle was the most likely announcements to arise on Wednesday, which he said would “send public signals that the Government is engaged and that it's got energetic people and that it's focused on core issues”.

"The Prime Minister has an issue, she's been in office for [almost] five years, three of those years, at least, have been stressful and difficult. She and her senior people have been consumed with Covid and its various manifestations.

"They look and they seem tired, but she needs to find a way of positioning her ministers and their portfolios to present an image of freshness and energy and enthusiasm."

He said one way to do that was by a Cabinet reshuffle but also by removing things from the agenda to simplify and clarify the Government's direction.

His picks were a promotion for Tauranga-based MP and Women's and Internal Affairs Minister Jan Tinetti, as well as Wairarapa MP Kieran McAnulty.

Shaw also believed that meant a "pull back or push it out" for the TVNZ / RNZ merger so it wouldn't become an election issue.

But it shouldn't just be about nixing unpopular policies, Shaw said.

Associate Education Minister Jan Tinetti.

"There will need to be some constructive positive stuff.”

Things like free dental care were not likely – it would "give the Opposition ... another opportunity to say, 'tax and spend, tax and spend' [about Labour]".

He said if anything, a positive policy announcement would likely be related to children, an area closely associated with Ardern and a relatively universal - rather than partisan - topic.

Shaw said a post-Cabinet press conference on Wednesday that covered an election date, Cabinet reshuffle and policy reset would reinvigorate the Government's messaging.

"It would be a tonal shift ... focusing people ahead and away from the Covid years.

"People ... want things to feel differently, and one way to do that is to talk about the next election.

"If it's communicated well - and [Ardern's] still good at that stuff - it can convey that sense of momentum and impetus and energy and focus."

Looking to the rest of the year, Shaw said if a recession did not occur, it could undermine National's election platform.

"If that doesn't occur, then [Finance Minister] Grant Robertson is going to have an absolute field day."

Blogger, political commentator and Taxpayers' Union co-founder David Farrar, who has also held roles in the National Party, said the announcement of an election date in the post-Cabinet press conference was likely, although there was a chance the Government would hold off.

He said this was due to uncertainty about the economic situation, with a more cheery economic outlook likely to be to Labour's benefit.

Finance Minister Grant Robertson.

Farrar believed a November election date was most likely and "made sense".

He also believed a Cabinet reshuffle was on the cards, including some retirements - his picks were Phil Twyford, Stuart Nash and Peeni Henare.

'Internal politics' could get in the way of promotions

Twyford and Nash had treaded the parliamentary carpets for 15 years, while Defence Minister Henare had served nine years.

As for promotions, Farrar said Mana MP Barbara Edmonds - currently Labour's junior whip - was a fair bet.

"[New Lynn MP] Deborah Russell should absolutely get there on talent and ability. There's a bit of internal politics as there always is with these things, so that might get in the way."

First elected in 2017, Russell, an accountant with a doctorate in political philosophy, has been parliamentary under-secretary for revenue since the end of 2020.

Farrar said possible "future ministers" like list MP Camilla Belich and Manukau MP Arena Williams were "outside chances" for promotion, such as to parliamentary private secretary roles.

Health Minister Andrew Little.

Parliamentary private secretaries are advisory roles, not part of the executive and cannot act for a minister. They are not remunerated for the role, unlike parliamentary under-secretaries.

Farrar said portfolio shifts were more significant than promotions and retirements.

Among those, Farrar believed Health Minister Andrew Little was set for a change.

"There's no doubt Andrew Little can be a very competent minister, but health has just been disastrous.

"Health has become a bit of a festering sore ... with almost daily stories on waiting list crises [and other hospital problems]."

Farrar believed it likely Associate Health Minister Ayesha Verrall would swipe the ministerial stethoscope from Little, but said Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern would have to think carefully about where to place Little instead, as a senior member of the Labour party.

"He's very well-regarded, partly for handing over to Jacinda [Ardern] when he did."

Media merger 'rarking up a lot of people'

As for possible policy swerves, Farrar said the TVNZ / RNZ merger was "an obvious one to drop".

"It's just rarking up a lot of people and there's no actual votes in it.

"The problem with the merger for them is it comes on top of the Public Interest Journalism Fund, and ... people really are quite convinced this is undermining the media.

"Regardless of ... the reality, you've already got perceptions around the Government interfering too much in the media."

He said the Government was likely to delay introducing income insurance, but not abandon it.

The policy had "terrible timing" because it proposed to take cash out of peoples' back pockets at a time when New Zealanders were feeling less wealthy.

"They would definitely do it if they can get a third term. I think they'll even keep it as policy, but the smart thing would be to not try to pass the law before the election."

Nanaia Mahuta.

Farrar said Labour would not "back down" on Three Waters, but he did believe Associate Local Government Minister Kieran McAnulty would likely take the main portfolio off Nanaia Mahuta to "take some of the heat away from her".

Farrar said another thing to keep an eye out for may not be announced on Wednesday but could be imminent: some ministers with electorate seats shifting to list-only spots.

He said while official reasons like workload were often proffered, it could also be a sign of a lack of confidence in winning the election, because it showed a lack of willingness to stick around in Parliament in Opposition.

"If you're on the list you can just go."

Farrar said this could be possible for Remutaka MP Chris Hipkins and Wellington Central MP Grant Robertson, although he said it was "plausible to possible but not probable".

Farrar said there were practical reasons for such a decision but it could be overridden by the possible negative optics.

Looking further afield to political predictions for the year, Farrar said he believed anti-vaccination parties may do better than expected, but would not surpass the 5% party-vote threshold unless they unified.

Labour can't 'jettison' policy 'like refuse from an airplane'

Public relations consultant and former National Party press secretary Ben Thomas said in his view the announcements would be staggered, not delivered all at once.

He believed a reshuffle announcement was more likely for Tuesday, flagging the media merger as an “obvious” issue to address.

"They're in a bit of a bind because they've got to dump enough policies that it looks like they're drawing a line under something, but at the same time they don't want to look like they're massively folding on everything.

"It can't be just jettisoning it like refuse from an airplane, they need to be replacing it with something else."

A hail mary-type move would not come on Wednesday however, Thomas said - such things would occur in due course in the election proper.

More likely was an indication on the "economic plan" National had been pressuring the Government to produce.

Thomas said the Government appeared to be framing itself as cost of living crisis managers - playing to it, and Ardern's, strengths - but if the polls were anything to go by, the public was not convinced.

Thomas believed it was more likely the Government would give a policy-based announcement after – and separate to - a reshuffle announcement, and an election date either side of those two things.

'Big bang', or staggered announcements?

Author, political commentator and former Green Party MP Gareth Hughes believed an election date announcement was coming on Wednesday - his bet was November 11 or 18.

"From the Government's perspective, economic conditions are looking pretty poor, we seen the worst business confidence survey in 50 years.

Hughes said while much of the punditry was picking late November, the Government would not want to be seen to be leaving it to the last minute for perceived political gain.

He said if the election date was to be announced on Wednesday, it had to come alongside another announcement, or it was a missed opportunity while the public's attention was on the Government.

"The big question is, is it a big bang announcement, that covers multiple areas - such as a Cabinet reshuffle, maybe some more resignations, maybe some policy ideas, maybe the election theme - or would it just be one of those things, and maybe stagger those out for maximum political and media exposure over the coming weeks.

"I suspect they'll probably want to maximise that exposure.

"They'll definitely want to set off the framing for the political year."

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