Hamilton West is traditionally a bellwether seat, swinging with the mood of the nation.
So the by-election on December 10 is to give us a taste of how people are feeling about our political parties heading into the summer break.
All parties can use this as an appetiser to the main event, the election, due at the end of next year.
It’s a litmus test. It’s a practice run and it’s a bigger version of a poll.
This is the by-election that Labour was desperately trying to avoid because of the cost and because it’s a lose-lose situation.
They win the seat – status quo. They lose the seat to National and they hand over momentum on the cusp of election year.
Setting the tone and the narrative for the summer BBQ season is also useful and having a by-election two weeks before Christmas is an opportunity to do that.
We’ve seen all sides fighting for that underdog status in this by-election. Why? Because that manages expectations and motivates people to get out and vote.
Gaurav Sharma won 53% of the vote in 2020 with a margin of 6267 votes.
National’s Tim Macindoe came second with 37% of the votes and the ACT and TOP candidates both got 3% each.
In 2017 the results between Sharma and Macindoe switched around.
Macindoe captured 54% and won the seat and Sharma got 31%.
This time Sharma - the man who triggered the by-election after quitting Parliament - won't have Labour's apparatus behind him. Their candidate is Georgie Dansey. National is yet to select its candidate while ACT list MP James McDowall has also tossed his hat in the ring.
The party support in the seat has also swung back and forwards over the years. This tells us this seat is up for grabs.
There’s five weeks to until we find out how the pendulum will swing.
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