The Auckland mayoralty race has taken a turn after Viv Beck's withdrawal, with Wayne Brown leapfrogging his way to the top to leave Efeso Collins in second, a Q+A Kantar Public Poll suggests.
Kantar Public polled eligible Auckland voters about who they want as their next mayor. The first round of polling, which surveyed 1000 people, was conducted between September 8 and 15 - the latter being one day before Beck announced she was pulling out of the race.
That poll found 32% of people didn't know who they would vote for, 10% refused to say, and 4% didn't plan to vote.
Excluding these three groups, of those who said they were likely to vote, their preferences for mayor are:
- Efeso Collins: 29%
- Wayne Brown: 24%
- Viv Beck: 14%
- Craig Lord: 10%
- Gary Brown: 4%
The remaining candidates polled at 3% or lower.
The second round of polling of 1000 people was conducted between September 16 and 20. This time, 30% said they didn't know who they'd vote for, 10% refused to say, and 4% didn't plan to vote.
Excluding these groups, people's preferences for the mayor are:
- Wayne Brown: 35%
- Efeso Collins: 29%
- Viv Beck (while she has withdrawn, her name remains on voting papers): 8%
- Craig Lord: 8%
- Gary Brown: 5%
The remaining candidates polled at 3% or lower.
Kantar Public analysis found ACT and National Party supporters, people over the age of 60, men, and New Zealand Europeans are more likely than average to vote for Brown as mayor.
Meanwhile, Green and Labour Party supporters, Pasifika, and women aged between 35 and 54 are more likely than average to vote for Collins.
Former Far North mayor Brown said he is "humbled people want me to fix Auckland".
"It's gratifying to find I'm in the lead in the poll and that it's clearly a two-horse race between spenders and savers."
Manukau ward councillor Collins said he is still "really confident we will win" and that he expects a "tight race".
"These numbers give us a snapshot of where people are at, at the moment."
Collins said his job is to continue to go out into the community, sell his vision, and encourage people to vote.
Freelance media operator Lord, who came third in Auckland's 2019 mayoral race, said he was trailing behind because it came down to brand awareness.
He said voters' awareness comes from ads and news coverage, but that he is tracking well on social media.
Q+A polled voters on a number of issues, including housing intensification, public transport, and how they felt about the Super City.
Read the results and methodology here.
Between September 8 and 15, 1000 eligible Auckland Council voters were polled online, using online panels. After Viv Beck announced her withdrawal, a second poll of 1000 eligible Auckland Council voters was completed in the same manner between September 16 and 20.
The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. For candidate support, percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on candidate support. The data have been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, ethnic identification and education in Auckland Council. The online sample is collected using an online panel.
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