Epidemiologists are warning we could see a Covid-19 resurgence similar to Singapore as Auckland welcomes new Level 3 freedoms.
Several overseas nations have relaxed Covid-19 restrictions or scrapped them altogether in recent months, with vastly different outcomes.
Nightclubs filled to maximum capacity and mandatory masking was scrapped on England’s so-called ‘Freedom Day’ in July. Experts predicted cases would rise to 100,000 a day or more. While that hasn’t happened yet, with case numbers at around 27,000 a day, University of Canterbury Professor Michael Plank says deaths are still high.
“They've had around 8000 deaths since Freedom Day which was two-and-a-half months ago. To put that in a New Zealand context, that would be the equivalent of us having 600 deaths here in just two-and-a-half months.”
“At the same time you have to remember the UK’s got a lot of population immunity from prior infection because so many people have had the virus there. That does contribute to their overall immunity and to slowing down the transmission relative to what it would be in a country like New Zealand where we have very little prior infection.”
Citing high vaccination rates, Norway and Denmark both dropped most remaining restrictions on things like social distancing and venue entry last month.
They’ve seen a slight drop in cases, but Plank says it’s “early days”.
“With the Northern Hemisphere countries heading into winter it may be that they do see a bit of a resurgence over the winter months and that might prompt them to bring some restrictions back.”
Meanwhile in Singapore, just a slight easing of restrictions has seen cases skyrocket.
The island nation relaxed limits on social gatherings slightly in August, allowing groups of five to socialise instead of two and allowing 50 per cent of workers back on site.
Case numbers were sitting at around 100 a day when those rules came into place. Daily case numbers are now sitting at around 2,200.
Auckland University Professor Rod Jackson says Singapore’s experience is “sobering”, especially given 82 per cent of the population is fully vaccinated.
“They're getting few deaths and hospitalisations are manageable but the bad news is they're still getting infected. Even though being vaccinated substantially reduces your risk of getting infected, if you keep on re-exposing people to infection they will get infected.
"In New Zealand where we've only got 50 per cent double vaxxed, we could be in for very, very rocky time unless we can stamp out this outbreak.”
Plank says Singapore is a “cautionary tale” for New Zealand.
“Singapore has managed to keep Covid case numbers very low throughout the pandemic so like New Zealand, Singapore has very low levels of prior immunity, that may be a contributing factor as to why they have seen this very sharp resurgence.”
So how do we catch up to countries leading the world with their vaccination response? In the United Arab Emirates and Portugal, 84 per cent of eligible people are fully vaccinated. Auckland University clinical research fellow Amy Chan says while those countries got started with their vaccination rollouts earlier, there are other things New Zealand could still replicate.
“There are some similarities between those responses... There was a clear figurehead which led much of the campaign, particularly in Portugal. They actually had an admiral who led the campaign, who served as a figurehead throughout," she said.
“UAE engaged their religious leaders really early on so for us, I think we have to think of where our community leaders are and who those particular communities will trust… Reach out to those people as figureheads to lead the consistent messaging.”
Jackson wants to see vaccines mandated for certain workers as soon as possible.
“I want the Government to introduce vaccine mandates in health, in education, in the police, in supermarkets and I want them to signal that now: ‘If you're not vaccinated by Labour day, you won't have a job by December’.”
“New Zealanders need to realise vaccination is freedom, vaccination is Christmas… It’s not being selfish - vaccination is family, vaccination is caring for people. This is the new normal.”
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