October 07, 2021
Dr Rawiri Taonui | Delta OutBreak total set to pass last year’s First Wave by Sunday
Situation Update
Today 7 October Day 16 of Auckland Alert Level 3.
During the First Wave last year, we moved to Alert Level 3 after four weeks at Level 4 and following several days of less than 10 cases. This year, Auckland moved to Level 3 after four weeks at Level 4 with a 2.5 times more infectious Delta variant and multiple days of between 11 and 33 cases. The move was premature. A six-week to two-month Level 4 lockdown would have suppressed Delta.
Last year on Day 16 Level 3, there was a total of 35 cases. In Delta Day 16 Level 3, the total is 364 cases of which 42.6% are Māori. Level 3 Delta has allowed more people to move about Auckland and cross Auckland borders with other regions, enabling and disguising Delta’s movement into the marginalised periphery of the Māori community.
Level 3 is intended to ease restrictions while continuing to suppress the virus. The government easing of Level 3 restrictions does the opposite. Asking whānau to isolate in family bubbles while having their infants mix in Early Child Education is not sensible and allowing whānau to bubble mix multiple times in one day without checks is a recipe for calamity. The proposal to open schools on 18 October while new cases are running at 200 per week is dancing with disaster.
There are new cases in Raglan, Kāwhia, Hamilton and Karapiro. There is an elevated risk of further transmission into Northland and from the Waikato into other regions. The principal risk is to the lower vaccinated Māori community.
Last year, the First Wave reached 1,500 cases in 14 weeks. Delta will, in just over 8 weeks, surpass 1,500 cases by Sunday.
Māori
• Māori are 13 of 29 new cases.
• This is the 8th time in nine days Māori have had the highest number of cases by ethnicity.
• Māori are 42.6% (149 of 376) of new cases during Level 3.
• Māori are the highest number of new cases by ethnicity since 14 Sept.
• Māori are 16.7% of the population.
• Delta Māori cases passed this mark on 29 Sept.
• Māori cases are 21.1% (305 of 1,448) of all Delta cases.
• Māori cases passed the total for all Pākehā, Asian, and MELAA cases on 30 Sept.
Photo Supplied
Pacific Peoples
· Pacific are six new cases today. This is the 4th consecutive day under 10 cases. This is a credit to the strength of the Pacific response to the appalling early Delta figures for the Pacific community.
· Pacific are 35.2% (128 of 364) of all Level 3 cases.
· Pacific remain the highest demographic impacted by Delta with 59.8% (866 of 1,448) of all Delta cases. These percentages are decreasing as the number of Māori cases grows.
Māori and Pacific
· Level 3: Māori and Pacific are 77.8% (283 of 364) of all cases.
· Delta OutBreak: Māori and Pacific are 80.9% (1,171 of 1,448) OutBreak cases.
· Over the last week: There have been 201 new cases. Of these 88 are Māori (43.8%), 48 Pacific (23.9%) and Pākehā, Asian and MELAA a combined total of 65 (32.3%) cases.
Photo Supplied
Pākehā Cases
Over the last two days, new Pākehā cases have been the second-highest behind Māori. The lesson, if a largely Pākehā government does not protect the health, wellbeing and safety of our most vulnerable communities, Delta will make its way back into the Pākehā community. It is in all our interests to defeat Delta.
Noho haumaru, stay safe.
Dr Rawiri Taonui