TLDR & TLDL: It’s early days and it has yet to be reflected widely in sales and prices, but the headlong dive in house buying and mortgage borrowing sentiment appears to be bottoming out. Surveys of mortgage brokers and real estate agents out this week show a tentative return of rental property investors and overseas buyers as banks start easing their lending restrictions and the borders start reopening.
The survey results come as Barfoot and Thompson released figures showing a surprise bounce in Auckland prices in March and early indications a global economic slowdown and already higher interest rates will stop central banks from having to tighten too aggressively to put a sinking lid back on inflation. Paid subscribers can see more of my analysis below the paywall fold and in the podcast above.
Elsewhere in the news this morning:
The EU announced plans overnight to stop buying Russian coal within three months, but Germany’s reliance on Russia for 50% of its gas is stopping a much more effective and broader set of sanctions in reaction to evidence of Russian war crimes in Ukraine;
The US Treasury blocked Russia’s latest US dollar interest rate payments to bond holders through US banks overnight, pushing Russia closer to a sovereign bond default and showing how sanctions are not working to choke Russia out of the global financial system; and,
Auckland Transport has told councillors it can’t afford to run the city’s buses and trains beyond the end of June because of a 40% slump in fares due to lower patronage during Covid, lower-than-expected project funding from Waka Kotahi (NZTA) and surprising talk of a $1b loss of regional fuel tax funds by 2023, which is five years earlier than planned, as Todd Niall reports for Stuff this morning.
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