Potential National/Act NZ (47%) coalition retains a large lead over Labour/Greens (42.5%)
Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows support for the two major parties unchanged in March with National on 38% still 6% points ahead of Labour on 32%. This is the equal highest level of support for National for over two years since January 2020.
NATIONAL: 38%
LABOUR: 32%
ACT: 9%
GREENS: 10.5%
NZF: 4%
TOP: 1.5%
Maori Party: 2%
The flashing warning sign here is that if NZFirst are scoring 4% this far out from the election, you can bet Winston is back on Election Day.
The really fascinating insight to this poll is how divided the Male and Female vote is between left and right.
After spending the last 5 years screaming that men are the problem, the Left have chased off male voters to the right…
Support for the Labour/ Greens coalition remains strong amongst women. Support for the Labour/ Greens coalition is at 54.5% for women aged 18-49 compared to only 35% support for National/ Act NZ. For women aged 50+ support is at 49.5% for the Labour/ Greens coalition compared to 44.5% for National/ Act NZ.
There is a stark difference for men with 55% supporting National or Act NZ. In March 51.5% of men aged 18-49 supported National/ Act NZ compared to only 33.5% that supported Labour/ Greens. For men aged 50+ there were 58.5% supporting National/ Act NZ compared to 32% supporting Labour/ Greens.
Support for the Greens is far higher amongst both younger women and younger men than their older counterparts. One-in-six women aged 18-49 (16.5%) and over one-in-eight men aged 18-49 (13%) support the Greens compared to only 7% of women aged 50+ and just 5% of men aged 50+.
…it’s a stark pattern…
…with the Greens about to politely take out James Shaw and vote in new rules that will create a non-binary co-leadership model set up to allow Chloe to become co-leader, the perception that the Greens are just a Feminist party with some environmentalism thrown in could cause the Green Male vote to either transfer on mass to Labour, or be tempted by Winston’s machismo, Christian Lex Luthor’s Dad routine or stand up comedian David Seymour’s sick burns.
At a time when more women’s voices in positions of power have had platform and at a time when male identity has been so ruthlessly critiqued in open social media, a political cultural backlash is brewing and it will be anonymous incel Troll on 4chan nasty.
Gender and all the culture war fun that brings will be a central fault line that erupts as the economic pressure really bites.
The Greens will herald their non-binary co-leadership model as progress, the wider electorate will see it as emblematic of a woke dogma that alienates far more than it can recruit at a time of peak economic anxiety.
Pure temple politics is fine until all the people you’ve denied into the temple are far larger than you can ever hope to be.
Oh and if Winston dodges the Grim Reaper over the next 18 months, NZ First are in and he will go with National.
This next election will be one of the most polarised in NZ history.
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Perfect!
A quick succession of maybe 1 or 2 back to back general elections because whoever wins in 2023 will have a thin majority and or, it will be a minority-led government!
The only way to clear out the shit in parliament.
Run as an independent at the next election then Mr Tane/Male/Man,not-Wahine Female/Woman
You’ll certainly get the male, misogynist, rabbit-hole dweller and Facebook algorithm dweller votes.
Might I venture, you’ll get the gun-lobby, homophobic, non-woke, free-speech Freedumb voters as well.
You’ll get those who who bike-ride their way around cities delivering “essential supplies”
I don’t think I’ll be alone when I abandon Labour and look for an alternative AND have to swallow a dead rat or two in the process.
Labour have proven breath takingly useless but their enduring coup de grâce is their failure in housing and it’s bastard child, inequity. I have had a guts full of tinkering and them pretending there’s nothing to see here. Hiding victims of our broken housing system in squalid motels is a damning indictment on this government and their odious disingenuous “kindness” brand.
And zero lead on climate change. E cars? And pissing about taking up road space for bike hobbyists. That’s it?
Crime, another spectacular failure.
By the time they are booted out, they will have had 6 years and half of that with a majority. And the most memorable part of it will be being locked in Auckland for 4 months because both they and the MOH couldn’t get their shit together. Again.
And please, do not refer to Labour as being left wing! Nothing as pointless as this Labour government can be pinned anywhere on the spectrum!
National will be as shit as they’ve always been so no point there.
ACT still haven’t learnt the late 80’s were not an economic or social success.
The Greens, Jesus wept, what a bad joke. Still naval gazing, clearly despise the male gender and stand by for nothing but trivia. They too are neither left or centre, rather some far right gender party and Queens of the Woke are all they are.
I am hoping something worth voting for comes along or Winston it is!
XRAY you have said it all When the answer is to vote for Winston the question has to be how have we come to this and then how soon is the next flight to Australia .
Bye, bye and “See ya Trevor!”, don’t let the exit gate hit your glutes on the way out, Take gagarin and XRAY and Sour Kraut with you. You haters would be welcomed with open arms in Oz.
Your misogyny, racism, toxic masculinity and homophobia would make you superstars Just like when the darling of the right, and ACT wannabe Paul Henry succeeded in Oz. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/paul-henry-makes-aussie-tvs-hall-of-shame/5IA5THR4RTY6GQ7NREC6VVJTJM/
You right-wingers whinge on about New Zealand and how Australia is better. Start a go-fund me page. Let us know what it is here and we’ll all chip in.
tautoko 100% Bro. All the right wingers above have been manipulated and influenced by the NATZACT dirty politics team. By the way what a rubbish Rogue morgan Poll – is this the same poll that Australians voted Jacinda as their best PM. The rogue morgan poll has given all the grumpy old tory, right wing, anti everything labour and hate Jacinda men and woman some excitement 18 months before the elections. I detect that the NATZACT dirty politics brigade has mobilised its nasty right wing followers and clients (Tory talk ZB and Tory Times herald etc) on the fake police callout numbers and the rogue polls.
The world is looking for a leader of the free world. Jacinda is the only world leader to have protected and save d the lives of its citizens from a foreign invader COVID-19. The rest of the world (and the right wingers in Aotearoa) have failed badly and have raised the white flag and deserted from the front line.
spot on x-ray
when the LINOs only policy point is ‘we’re not national’ to which I reply ‘really?’ they’re on pretty shakey ground.
We’ve had a whip-round XRAY and have purchased you a one-way ticket to Oz. Martyn has the ticket we bought, and can send you a fax of the boarding pass.
As an aside, when the 501 clause is invoked, Aussies describe it as “Taking the Trash out” and sending Kiwis back to NZ/AO
We’ve nominated and paid for you to be the first 105 Kiwi, “taking our trash out and sending it over to Aussie”.
Whinge, grizzle, moan your f*cking heart out when you’re in Bondi mate. We’ve added an add-on, (not strap-on) that you can activate. It’s one-way layover option flight in Oz, then straight on to blighty, so you can leave the land-downunder and head over to to the land of the ‘long-white-non-Brexit-anti-darkie’ shores of England.
Send us a post from blighty, matey. No thanks are necessary Trevor, nor expected. Happy whingeing in Ozzie, or England, wherever, as long as it’s not here.
PS Trevor, there’s a seat next to yours, reserved for gagarin, but don’t drink anything he offers from his silver teapot.
May I respectfully dissuade you both from ordering the ‘golden shower” optional extra during your Moscow stopover. It could be compromising for both of you, and will make you unwillingly and eternally grateful to Vladimir (the Russian), not Volodymyr, (the Ukrainian)
Happy trails boys!
Bring it on Martyn–I have had enough of would be alpha males, and a lot of aspirationals in their Ford Ranger double cabs are indeed wannabes rather than the real deal.
COVID showed who was who in this country and the battle lines are drawn.
The question of whether the country is going in the right direction is now net -12.5% (39.5% right against 51.5% wrong), a year ago it was +34%. DPF:
“Of great concern to Labour will be the gender breakdown of the direction question. In February women were + 8% but are now -6%. Men have gone from -19% to just -20% so the drop in satisfaction has been with women – a core Labour support base.”
So, nearly all of that dramatic recent slide is down to the change in women’s attitudes.
Perhaps some legacy of the idiotic Jacinda mania is reflected in the high, but now falling, support for labour among women.
Where do you get your figures from DG?
Another misogynist troll site?
But people can’t even define what a women even is these days without being flamed
errr I mean “menstruating person”
Not flamed XXX dearie, women must be a real anathema to you?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300561708/why-escalating-misogynistic-abuse-of-jacinda-ardern-is-a-national-security-issue
There are certainly fractures in NZ left wing politics and society related to (biological) sex.
But it’s more complicated than a straight male/female divide. As the RM Poll points to, age is also a significant factor: see the drop of support for the GP especially from women over 50yrs.
This is at a time when our MPs (48% female) have unanimously voted in favour of sex self ID, and legally falsifying birth certificates so males are recorded as female (ie any male can now say they are female, no questions asked, and vice versa).
While NZ has almost 50% female representation in parliament, they have all supported gender identity ideology, which is a neoliberal ideology and movement developed by well-off US male lawyers, closely followed by UK male lawyers (see the research of Jane Clare Jones on the political erasure of sex) and Jennifer Bilek (following the gender transition industry and money).
So, internationally, especially in the west, there is a huge backlash against women’s hard won rights, protections and services (previously enshrined in law based on biological sex).
And yet, all these NZ (alleged) feminists in parliament and the media have jumped onboard with gender ID ideology.
A lot of the opposition to genderism internationally has been led by gen x, middle-aged women) , along with many 30-50 year olds. This is because women tend to not get radicalised until their 30s. A lot of this has to do with the contradictory way younger women are treated – they get a lot of male attention, but in ways that can be both seemingly positive as well as sometimes being unpleasant and confusing. Plus when they hit their 30s, and many are becoming mothers, they find their position in society shifts noticeably, and the attention from males changes.
But, it seems to me that the female genderists in the GP especially are sowing the seeds of their own destruction in the future.
There is a backlash against female political and social gains going on internationally, but in NZ it is playing out in a bit of a different way than in the US and Europe, and Aussie.
And as overseas, it is fracturing the left, and exposing the long term failings of the left that had already been weakened and compromised by neoliberalism.
I agree with most of what you are saying, and not enough people follow the money in the trans debate (or identity politics generally). The contemporary cultural left (Critical Theorists or ‘woke’) discourse is focused on promoting grievances, real or imagined, a version of conflict theory theorising an intrinsic oppressor/oppressed dichotomy between male/female, white/black, straight/gay, cis/trans, colonial/indigenous etc.
Where the neoliberal corporatists come in is the marriage of convenience with woke activists. The oppressor/oppressed dichotomy creates a narrowly defined identity based ‘equity’ politics This makes it is incredibly easy to ‘game’ the system which leads to virtue theatre, a kind of anti-politics where advancing anyone who is not male/cis/white/heterosexual feels highly progressive but does not challenge neoliberal power and is the perfect cover for corporatists post-occupy wall street.
What you are pointing out in ‘genderism’ is the cis/trans dichotomy (from Queer Theory branch of Critical Theory) coming into conflict with hard won women’s rights, because it is jaw droppingly misogynistic.
However I ask you to take a step back because it appears you are falling into the conflict theory lens of seeing this as male/female conflict. At the risk of over simplification it is more a cis/trans conflict. On the intersectional totem women are more oppressed than men BUT trans are more oppressed that cis. Therefore trans-women have 2 dimensions of oppression (woman and trans) while women only have one (women) so biological women loose (usually articulated more ‘creatively’ by activists but this is what it invariably reduces down to).
Yes this is BS and yes it relies on equivocation of the term ‘women’ between sex and gender and yes it is deeply misogynistic (in Queer theory ‘liberation’ is achieved by dissolving the distinction in the category of sex, ie between male and female).
IMO the whole conflict theory framing in a culture-only context is also largely BS. This kind of thinking has been established across a whole range of oppressor/oppressed identity dimensions and is rolling back civil rights more broadly not just for women.
“A lot of the opposition to genderism internationally has been led by gen x, middle-aged women) , along with many 30-50 year olds. This is because women tend to not get radicalised until their 30s”
With respect I disagree, I’ve always found far more activists under-30, indeed it is this activism (co-opted by neoliberalism) that is the problem.
I think ‘age’ is more to do with growing up after the civil rights era and in the the 2nd Wave feminism movement (equality) versus growing up in 3rd and 4th Wave feminism (equity and identity politics). They are fundamentally different philosophies and most cannot see the woke cuckoo in the progressive nest.
As you point out much of Trans ideology (which has nothing to do with trans people) is the opposite of (2nd wave) feminism and highly misogynistic. However you also see the same rollback in gay rights. For example gay and lesbian is redefined as ‘same-gender attraction’ so lesbians who won’t sleep with trans-women are ‘transphobic’. Gay rights activists from the 80s and 90s are coming out of retirement over this kind of BS.
There is the same rollback in the dimension of race. Where the MLK formulation of civil rights was about colourblind ideals (not putting social significance into race), now your racial group IS now far more important than who you are as a person or where you came from, which is why Opera (a multimillionaire black woman) can muse over the ‘white privilege’ that even a homeless white man enjoys. (For Critical Race Theory ‘liberation’ is achieved by *strengthening* the distinction in the category of race, which is why you cannot be trans racial. The opposite logic to Queer Theory).
“And as overseas, it is fracturing the left, and exposing the long term failings of the left that had already been weakened and compromised by neoliberalism.”
I completely agree and fear the backlash to identity politics could throw the baby out with the bath water, rollback decades of civil right and cause rejection of genuinely progressive politics for a generation or more.
Thanks, Tui. Yes we agree on some things and not others. I’m familiar with you line of argument about ‘cultural dichotomies’, and disagree with much of it. It is a strand of argument that tends to over-generalise in some ways, while also pointing to the ways strands of thought under umbrella terms have been diverted in specific directions.
Not all dichotomies are bad. Some are based on material and structural inequalities. I used to be in agreement with some of the research and theorising done under the queer and critical theory umbrellas. The original critical theorists eg Adorno, Horkheimer, Walter Benjamin, etc were marxists and accepted marxist material analysis of the ruling and subject classes under capitalism – they accepted the material and structural reality of exploitation and oppression of the working classes. They focused on how culture industries and institutions helped to reinforce and perpetuate the economic class divisions under capitalism. That’s a ‘dichotomy’ that is foundational to the political left historically.
The left has always been built onto an idea of structural and material inequalities (it is liberal politcs that aims to do some tinkering within existing structures). I disagree that anti-racism was totally focused on being colour blind in the 60s-70s. You single out MLK (in the US, mainstream ‘left’ has always tended to be more liberal than left, looking for ‘equality’ within existing structures). A lot of anti racism in the UK, Europe and NZ did not accept the ‘colour blind’ rhetoric, and saw it as ultimately racist.
The oppression of females has been based on the material reality of biological sex for centuries (based in social structures built around women’s reproductive capacity and the distinct biological differences between males and females).
There was a strand in 2nd wave feminism which totally downplayed sex differences and focused on cultural differences (gender). But that was particularly not true of many 2nd wave radical feminists. The renewed focus on the material reality of sex differences is prevalent in campaigns against males self-IDing into women’s sports, prisons, services and spaces, etc. And it’s evident in the focus on the need to maintain sex distinctions in health and medicine because the realities of female responses to disease and medicine have tended to be ignored and under-researched for a long time. There’s much more research needed there.
I lose track of the waves after about the 80s – really, for me there are just different strands of feminism, and I go for a mix or radical and socialist feminism. The strong opposition to transgenderism or gender identity ideology is indeed being led by middle aged women internationally (too young to be 2nd wavers, but looking back at it and picking up on some 2nd wave ideas and practices while criticising and rejecting others: eg Jane Clare Jones (UK) and Jennifer Bilek (US) who I mentioned above and strongly left wing/socialist). In NZ, many of the women who submitted against the self ID legislation and conversion practices bill come into that middle-age, left wing demographic.
I do agree there are many younger women speaking out against gender ID ideology on social media. Many of them have been particularly immersed in networks promoting genderism, and started to eventually become critical of what they have experienced. And many are lesbian. That is where many of us older lesbians learnt about what was happening in contemporary, youth-oriented rainbow organisations and the negative experiences of young lesbians being pressured to date trans IDed males. We wrongly had thought all the LGB battles had been won.
Some other gender critical young women are detransitioners – transitioned medically and/or surgically in their mid teens, then rejected the whole thing, and detransitioning by mid 20s – that coincides with the age when people tend to reach full neurological maturity, especially as regards decision-making.
I could go on, but, ultimately the direction of trans/genderism has come from liberal or neoliberal strands of thought and politics, originating in the US, that have tended to ignore or deny structural and material realities and put all the beliefs into cultural processes and new (medical) technologies. It is dominated by the middle classes and some of the very wealthy (eg those with financial interests in gender transition clinics in the US, and providing some of the funding for NZ rainbow organisations: eg the Arcus Foundation, funneling funds through the International Trans Fund.)
Thanks for your comments, I don’t have time to reply properly but really appreciate your comments especially on places where we may differ, and references to follow up.
I do accept differences between and have more time for the older Critical Theorists such as Adorno who include material as well as structural inequalities. I am also aware that marxists and many post-modernists are highly critical of how Critical Theory is being used (ie by people who don’t really understand its purpose and limitations. There is an analogy of a highly corrosive solvent, extremely useful in some situations but you don’t want to use it on everything). I also except that not all dichotomies are bad.
My criticism is more towards the modern incarnation of CT where this dichotomy lens is ‘culture-only’ (so incomplete or inaccurate) propagated as the one ‘moral-truth’ (engendering religiosity) and leveraged as a divide and conquer strategy facilitating a bourgeois moral revolution that is more about supporting neoliberal power and sensibilities than challenging it.
I have a lot of female clients, young and older, in charge of a variety projects and businesses. They are gewat to work with and they are all about business, achievement, efficiency and success. They will not vote for Jacinda, they made it clear. They may well want to vote left, but not this version. They don’t seem to care too much for all these politics of “feelings”. They want a govt that will help them advance their businesses and careers, earn more and look after their families better. All perfectly normal ambitions. They will probably vote in what you call the ‘male’ camp. So good luck Labour scooping up all those female votes. It’ll be a tough job.
Name them Sour Kraut?
Name these ‘gewat women’?
Name these imaginary ‘young and older women’ you work with, or are your ‘clients”
Calling bullshit on your imaginary women Sour Unkraut.
Just as the public are calling bullshit on Lex Luthor and his Christian Right, alt-right uber-menschen elite, to name who the “bottom feeders” are?
“So good luck Labour scooping up all those female votes. It’ll be a tough job.
So good luck to you Sour Unkraut ever talking to one of those imaginary “gewat business, achievement, efficiency and success women”
It’ll be a tough job.
Then you’ll wake up.
On the cultural left, identity politics (woke) discourse which arises from the Critical Theorists is designed to foster revolutionary conditions by creating or opening cultural fault lines. So male/female, Pakeha/Maori, straight/gay, cis/trans etc. All while appearing virtuous, most people cannot distinguish the woke cuckoo in the progressive nest, equity is the opposite of equality.
It appears to be working.
A gold mine for comedy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ev373c7wSRg
Enjoyed both your well reasoned comments above Tui.
Thanks, I think the second comment (that you replied to) is more of a rant. To be more precise “Equity as an end goal is the opposite of equality as an end goal”. IMO Equity is a reasonable metric, among many in attempting to achieve equality. However equity as an end goal assumes identity groups are equivalent and monolithic
And a ‘gold mine’ for racist, homophobic misogyny?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300561708/why-escalating-misogynistic-abuse-of-jacinda-ardern-is-a-national-security-issue
A ‘gold mine’ for casting the predictable social polarisation and backlash as as entirely motivated by racism, homophobia misogyny. It allows the political and media agenda setters to absolve themselves of any responsibility and blame the general public.
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2022/04/10/cancel-culture-falling-trust-in-news-middle-class-pearl-clutching-over-internet-trolls/
https://greenwald.substack.com/p/your-top-priority-is-the-emotional
oh deary me, actually no it’s more like FFS, back to the old discredited and palpably wrong ‘wimmin are nurturers’ therefore better leaders….how many examples do you need of ‘bad’ women in power…they are no worse than male leaders and certainly no better, gender like race is merely a distraction from the real issue..CLASS and economic distribution….so can we please stop the ‘this particular genitalia’ whatever it might be confers automatic sainthood?
your co-operation is appreciated.
Found under a bush were you gagarin?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300561708/why-escalating-misogynistic-abuse-of-jacinda-ardern-is-a-national-security-issue
Broadly, the left is for people that ‘feel’ whereas the centre (there is no right here) is for people that ‘think’
ah that’s a larff andy there’s nowt like a rightard for bruised ‘feel feels’
‘whaaaa don’t teach history it offends my self image’ being one of the more egregious examples
@Andrew and broadly, the hard right, alt-right ACT voters are where people “don’t think” about their fellow human beings and call them “bottom feeders
Labours deceitful cover up of the Rotorua motel sufferers is Jacindas Uighur moment.
Maybe Ardern could pick up the votes of the Nat/Act voters by going along with what they want. i.e. Clear out the Rotorua motels by sending the state’s ‘guests’ out on the street.
and John Key’s lies are passed on to the new Key Mark II and Sir John Key acolyte, Chris Luxon
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2016/06/04/435-lies-by-john-key/
A Russell Brand must-watch. Not what you might assume. Essential viewing alert! Neoliberalism unpacked. Fucking brilliant stuff.
“Will Smith has resigned from the Academy after slapping Chris Rock at the Oscars – but why are people still talking about it and what is this latest culture war distracting us from?”
https://youtu.be/l8gauWZpIsQ
“Latest Roy Morgan Poll – 2023 NZ election will be Woman vs Men”
Well, men will win because we men have stronger wrists and wear trousers and we can pee UP walls and we think straighter because no hormones and everything and that. So there. I like girls because they can cook and clean and I like girls because they snuggle nice and everything. And that.
My farmer Mother died 20 years ago today. She’d be laughing her head off. At all this stuff. At all this shit.
I’m writing a book. Well, more like pounding a robot. Same-same but different. I’ll let you know when it’s likely never finished. You’ll like my Mum. You’d better, or she’ll find you and fuck you up. Ba ha.
Explain what you mean by ‘Woman?’
Or, define what a female, woman is?
Then we’ll know how accurate those metrics are.
Notice how Winston has stopped mocking National and Act. If he gets back in it won’t be propping up poor man’s Gordon Brown’s shitfest.
Another thing – what will the Labour do when the magical 2 leads their polling number in June?
Winnie for the Win! He’s the only politician who wants to curb immigration. And before you call me racist, Martyn himself said that immigration is a problem!