This cross-sectional study aimed to explore various determinants of future physical activity (PA) participation in adolescents across sociodemographic groups. Sociodemographic characteristics (age, gender, ethnicity, deprivation status, physical disability status) were assessed in a national sample (n = 6906) of adolescents (12-17 years old) between 2017 and 2020 in New Zealand. The determinants of future PA participation chosen for analysis included current indicators of PA participation (i.e., total time, number of types, number of settings). We also examined widely recognised modifiable intrapersonal (i.e., physical literacy) and interpersonal (i.e., social support) determinants of current and future PA behaviour, along with indicators of PA availability issues. Older adolescents scored worse across all determinants of future PA than younger adolescents, with a key transition point appearing at 14-15 years of age. Māori and Pacific ethnicities scored best across each determinant category on average, with Asian populations scoring the worst. Gender diverse adolescents scored substantially worse than male and female adolescents across every determinant. Physically disabled adolescents scored worse than non-disabled across all determinants. Adolescents from medium and high deprivation neighbourhoods scored similarly across most determinants of future PA participation and both tended to score worse than people from low deprivation neighbourhoods. A particular focus on the improvement of future PA determinants is warranted within adolescents who are older, Asian, gender diverse, physically disabled, and from medium to high deprivation neighbourhoods. Future investigation should prioritise the longitudinal tracking of PA behaviours over time and develop interventions that affect multiple future PA determinants across a range of sociodemographic backgrounds.
Keywords: adolescent; behaviour; demographic; exercise; intervention; leisure; physical activity; sport; well-being; young people.