The Trade Development Council is maintaining its forecast of a 4 to 6 percent growth for the city’s exports this year.

The council on Wednesday unveiled its inaugural export confidence index, which stood at 39.6 for the first three months of 2024 and is projected to reach 47.4 in the April-June quarter.

Any readings below 50 indicate contraction while any readings above 50 indicate expansion.

Noting an overall improvement since last September, led by electronics products, Irina Fan, the council’s director of research, said exports continue to pick up in the three months ending March.

“There’s really improvement in sales and new orders, especially from mainland markets. And even for the inventories, it’s now back to a normalised level of 50," she said.

“The city’s exporters earlier faced pressure to cut prices, but now we can see that they also expect prices to stabilise in the future. All of these point to a more positive outlook for the city’s exports.”

Fan said US interest rate cuts, which are widely expected later this year, could further lift sentiment.

“One of the key factors negatively affecting exporters’ sentiment is actually the costs. Funding costs is one of them, a very strong US dollar is the other that makes our price less competitive.

“So if the US is really to cut interest rates and if it really translates into a weaker US dollar, that will help to release the cost pressure of our exporters which will also help to improve their performance as well,” she told RTHK.

The export confidence index was derived from a survey of over 500 local exporters. It comprises five sub-indices: sales and new orders, trade value, cost, procurement, and inventory.

On challenges ahead, 83 percent of the exporters surveyed said they were concerned about economic slowdown in overseas markets, while 63 percent noted rising transportation costs.

But 70 percent said they saw opportunities from rising demand from overseas markets, while 37 percent expected stronger demand from the mainland market.

Separately, the council noted an increase in semiconductor sales worldwide for 2024, driven by demand for AI-enabled computers, with the US-based Semiconductor Industry Association predicting a 13.1 percent rise in global chip sales.