Bets are sent Midday Tuesday, after all of the major Australian bookmakers release their prices.

If there is a lot of market movement (such as the line moving sharply in our favour), then the analyst may notify customers of arbitrage opportunities (e.g. middles bets), that can be very lucrative. 

Line market betting, so a decent sized bet is possible with many Australian bookmakers.

Each tip provides the rated price/line, the best & second best prices available with Australian bookmakers, and recommended unit investment; everything required to place the correct bet.

David Barrett is an engineer with a university educated mathematical background, and a very keen watcher of sports. "I am what most people would refer to as a numbers person. The main aspect that I’m drawn to and really enjoy is the mental challenge of building a successful model that proves to be highly profitable. I take a very analytical approach to what I do, and I perform a lot of research to ensure success. In terms of gambling, I have been a positive expected value bettor for three years now utilising this NRL model. I like to pursue a mathematical edge through statistics, backed up by logic on my bets, as opposed to betting off a gut feel or opinion. After many years fooling around with basic modelling, a few years ago took the leap and purchased a lot of literature and devoted a lot of time to it. There has been a lot of learning on my part and I have relished every opportunity that I have had to grow myself. I’ve found that whilst something new may not entirely change a particular betting approach, it could change one small component enough that it could really revolutionise a model or system. I became successful with this particular model through applying some concepts that I had read about in papers and other research, and adapting them to how I thought they could be suitable in the NRL. After a few attempts and countless hours, I finally got to the very strong model I have now."

"I have a model that solely looks for value. Simply put, I look for games where I disagree with the line and try to take advantage of that. Over the past 4 years, results have consistently proven my modelling has been a better indicator than the market. I use the game data as opposed to the final score to assess the true performance of each team in each game. As any avid sports watcher would know, in no way does the best team on the field always win. Often the impact of a lucky bounce of the ball, referees decisions, or 100 other factors can result in a team winning a match despite playing worse than their opposition. Using the game data rather than the final score to assess performance is effective  as there are a lot of indicators of team performance that the NRL “experts” are simply not talking about or considering as they are not aware of them. I come up with my own line for each game and compare that to the market line to find value. I find that I have quite a contrarian approach to betting, and in my opinion this works very well. I back a lot of underdogs as I feel that these are mispriced. The market overrates favourites and underestimates underdogs. Many who watch the NRL would iteratively know this to be true. Regularly the no hope team beats the hot favourite. A mixture of the salary cap, questionable refereeing quality, regular injuries and a number of other factors make the games a lot more variable than the market expects.

In terms of what information I use for my analysis, I use a wide range of offensive and defensive metrics and use an algorithm to determine accurate team ratings on the back of these numbers. I am of the opinion that the market needs to regress its ratings towards the mean (good teams are overrated and poorer teams are underrated). With these numbers I create a line that the model projects as the true line that should occur if the one particular game was to be played out over a thousand times. I bet on the line market within the NRL. I have trialled the head to head market, however I have found that there is more market inefficiency in the line markets. The edge that I quantify is the model’s projected line minus the market line and I bet that edge in units. "

"Price is key. If the model doesn’t see any value, then I will not be betting, it is as simple as that. I strongly believe in not forcing bets.

"I bet straight away. More often than not the line closes in the direction that I bet (beating the closing line value is clearly a positive indicator for the model)." 

The model always takes the first 4 rounds to calibrate to the new season, hence official bets start in Round 5.

Bets and staking are based upon a 100 unit betting bank. I take a different approach to betting that challenges the norms but is still realistic and protects against variance. I will be making a write-up available for members on this.  

If you’re like most punters, you enjoy a solid punt on the NRL. Fortunately for you, Winning Edge Investments has a unique model with a methodological & mathematical approach for providing the best professional, data-driven NRL tips in Australia.

The developer of our NRL tipping strategy is an engineer with a university-educated mathematical background.

Our service uses a wide range of offensive & defensive metrics that are fed into a proprietary algorithm to determine accurate team ratings. To learn more, read on below and find our exclusive interview with the model’s creator & NRL tipping expert, David Barrett.

Below is the full Q&A with our new NRL Expert, David Barrett

Click here

Proven Tipping Results

We believe in our product, but want to do more than just talk up our algorithm. Let’s look at some of the results we achieved over the last few years.

• Overall since 2017 these Professional NRL Tips have generated $25,621 profit for a $100 per unit investor with 258% ROI over 7 seasons ($3,660 profit per season on average)

We stand by our expert analysis, and we’re proud to offer you the opportunity to cash in on these results.

The model works. That’s why we back this service with an exclusive Profit Guarantee (available on annual subscriptions only). If you don’t make a profit from our NRL tipping service, then your next membership is 100% on us. Click Here to learn more about how the profit guarantee refund works.

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