The Greens are all fired up… thanks to Chris Hipkins.
It must have been frustrating for the Greens when, in August 2017, Jacinda Ardern claimed climate change as Labour’s big issue, and then proceeded to run (in the words of the Greens’ co-leaders) a “visionless government” that didn’t do nearly enough about the climate emergency.
Enter Chris Hipkins in January as the new PM who defenestrated a few policies that were supposed to help reduce carbon emissions. In effect, Hipkins did the Greens a great service by retreating from that territory. And I argue he did it deliberately.
What looks like a disagreement between the two parties is more like one of those fake wrestling matches. Here’s how it works:
Labour and the Greens need to differentiate from one another for vote-seeking purposes. Labour throws out some apparently irksome policies and goes for the middle-class petrol-burning centre in order to regain supporters who’ve been leaning towards the National Party.
That looked like Labour throwing the Greens against the ropes. But the Greens reply with a head-lock on Labour and shout that they (and only they) are the party that can deliver climate action. The crowd roars. The Greens are going for voters who are genuinely concerned about the future of the planet and who don’t trust Labour.
If each party fights its corner, they both maximise votes. The Labour-plus-Green seats after the election would then (they hope) suffice to form a Labour–Green coalition government. Post-match in the changing room, they’re best of buddies again.
Co-leader James Shaw made it clear in his key-note speech that the Greens are aiming for seats around the Cabinet table this time. That would be a first. So far, they’ve only had ministerial portfolios outside of Cabinet. They want to be right inside the tent. That’s called “office-seeking”.
It doesn’t end there, of course, because post-electoral bargaining power (depending on how many seats the Greens get) leads also to policy gains in climate change and other matters… like taxing the wealthy.
During government-formation negotiations, Hipkins could gracefully make the necessary policy concessions. As Shaw said, democracy is about making compromises, and we all know he’s made a few.
Of course, we don’t know what the election results will be, or how well this vote-seeking will work. And we don’t know whether the Māori Party would be needed to support this.
But Shaw has staked out the Green turf and made it clear that they’re not going to negotiate with the National Party. A deal with Labour is their only option, but they need to look tough in the meantime and take full command of their policy territory. Labour has conveniently vacated that space for them.