The collapse of Afghanistan to the Taliban and the fall of Kabul surprises next to no-one.
What has been shocking has been the speed of the capitulation.
Once Donald Trump announced the United States’ withdrawal after faux peace talks and once his presidential successor, Joe Biden, followed through, the future was grim.
It was 20 years ago that the United States and the West threw their military might into Afghanistan. The Taliban was overthrown after five years of rule.
This was after the 9/11 attacks on New York’s twin towers. The United States was determined to root out sources of and places for safe havens for terrorism and terrorists.
That was the easy part. The United States’ longest war — its “forever war” — dragged on. Competent and acceptable local government could not be created.
About 150,000 deaths, including 2300 American service people, and more than a trillion dollars later, the Taliban is back in charge.
Afghanistan, despite soothing words from the Taliban over the past six months, is returning to a murderous medieval theocracy.
Barbaric aspects of “Sharia” law, including stoning, whipping and amputation and the utter subjugation of women await.
About half the population of 38 million was born after 2001. Whatever the previous instability, rampant corruption and limited opportunities, these young people contemplate a different and worse future.
Women and girls face early and forced marriages and much lower life expectancy. As former prime minister and former leading United Nations figure Helen Clark said yesterday, all the gains have gone up in smoke.
The obscene scramble to leave Kabul, including the airport cut-and-run, echoes the last days of the flight from Saigon in 1975. Images of hovering evacuation helicopters again symbolise the failures and the humiliation of the world’s number one superpower.
The fundamentalist state, the ‘‘Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’’, will bolster the confidence of the tiny, dangerous minority of Muslims around the world who believe in violence to advance their fanaticism. Al-Qaeda and related groups could also again obtain sanctuary.
New Zealand has its own history in Afghanistan, sensibly managing to limit its commitments while supporting its Western allies.
Again, there is a parallel with Vietnam. Prime Minister Keith Holyoake appeased the United States with support but at the same time kept troops on the ground to a minimum.
The Government knows it is duty-bound to help Afghans and their families who have been tainted by working with New Zealand forces or agencies. The accelerating rout is making this difficult.
Just as in Vietnam, many will be left behind and left to suffer.
Expect, too, further refugee miseries — as if the world did not already have enough.
Afghanistan, too, is a patchwork of ethnic groups, and many will be on the outer with the Pashtun-dominated Taliban taking control.
The small Shia minority, meanwhile, will look to Iran. Iran, in turn, will recognise that the United States’ setback is not necessarily a gain for it or other powers.
Russia and China, in particular, while revelling in US humiliation, will hardly welcome reinvigorated extremism in their borderlands.
This is a bleak week for Mr Biden. He can blame mistakes by the Bush and Obama administrations and the shonky Trump “deal”. He can also know the retreat was supported by most Americans.
The denouement of the debacle, nonetheless, is on his watch.
Remember, this is the land where the British, Soviet, and now the United States empires came unstuck. Even Alexander the Great failed to have success there.
The United States and the West tried to bring peace, progress and stability to Afghanistan. The hopes proved to be naïve and delusory.
The world can do little more than watch with sadness and tears for the people of Afghanistan.
