Kiwis need to be prepared for "more pain" at the supermarket checkout, with an agricultural analyst warning there are some "bumpy rides ahead" due to farmers' rising costs.
Rabobank's Emma Higgins told Breakfast rising production costs are continuing to have an impact on farmers' margins, which ultimately flows onto consumers.
The rising cost of feed, fertiliser and fuel are to blame, with Higgins saying Kiwi farmers are at the mercy of "big factors at the global level", such as the war in Ukraine.
"Obviously as farmers' belts start to tighten, that filters into rural communities as well, and we do start to see pullback in terms of spending within our rural communities."
READ MORE: Farmers warn meat and dairy prices set to soar further
Higgins warned Kiwis will see more food price inflation hit the supermarket, so need to prepare for "more pain".
Although the outlook more long-term is "really good", Higgins remarked: "Buckle up, we are going to see some bumpy rides ahead."
"Ultimately we will need to see sustained price falls come through for commodity prices and then flowing through here into the New Zealand food chain for some of that relief to come through to consumers."
Higgins said farmer confidence had "pulled back down to lows we haven't seen since the Covid pandemic began", its latest survey in June had found.
READ MORE: High food production costs to hit Kiwi consumers, says economist
She added farm expenses price index data from Stats NZ for the June 2022 quarter showed there had been leaps of anywhere between 30% to 60% for feed, fertiliser and fuel alone.
Te Awamutu farmer Pete Morgan earlier told Breakfast inflation for farmers was running at more than double what the average is and is sitting around 15%.
"We'll carry on making it safe and nutritious and as cost effective as we possibly can."
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