Baker: Vaccines used before germ theory was even found

October 14, 2021

Epidemiologist professor Michael Baker said a prime example of the effectiveness of vaccines is the eradication of smallpox.

One of New Zealand's leading epidemiologists has emphasised the importance and effectiveness of vaccines by highlighting the eradication of smallpox as a pandemic threat.

Professor Michael Baker spoke to Breakfast on Thursday morning as New Zealand's vaccination figures for the Covid-19 pandemic crept towards 60 per cent of the eligible population being fully vaccinated.

It's the final 40 per cent that will be much harder to achieve but Baker said those wary of the vaccine need only look to recent virus examples to see why their so effective.

"One of the remarkable things about vaccines is that people started using them before we even had the germ theory," Baker said.

"They didn't even know we had an immune system - they just knew they worked in practice.

"They were a remarkable discovery... they transformed the lives of people across the globe."

One of the biggest examples of a vaccine working is the eradication of smallpox - one of the deadliest and most contagious diseases the world has ever experienced.

Smallpox is estimated to have killed 300 million people since up to 3000 years ago until 1980 when the World Health Organization declared it eradicated thanks to the development of a vaccine which had seen the last natural case of the virus being recorded in Bangladesh in 1975.

Covid-19 Coronavirus Vaccine vials in a row macro close up

Baker said there's even more science helping the globe battle Covid-19 in contrast to smallpox.

"We have epidemiology which is quite a new science, we have terms like herd immunity and that idea that if you're vaccinated, it doesn't just protect you but also those around you.

"Those concepts are still evolving so we've still got a bit to learn but the other thing that is staggering is the speed of vaccine developments now.

"It's built on decades of knowledge but we've seen these new vaccines come into existence and go through huge trials all in under a year and that is staggering."

Despite the advance in science, Baker said New Zealand will still need "as close to" 100 per cent vaccination rates for Covid-19 in order to pull off herd immunity against the coronavirus.

"In addition, we'll need other measures to push down this reproduction number which is very high but in New Zealand, it's been pushed down to about one," he said.

"That's because of vaccination but also all the other things we're doing but in the future we'll be doing fewer of those things as we don't lockdowns for instance so we'll have to rely on very high vaccine coverage and other things like mask wearing and rapid antigen testing."

Baker added the in order for Covid-19 to become a thing of the past like smallpox, vaccination had to be the goal on a global scale as well.

"At the moment, there's so much circulating virus especially in low-income countries that don't have access to vaccines - that's like a factory creating new variants so the best thing is equity.

"We have to lift vaccine coverage for everyone across the globe."

Global eradication of Covid-19 will require one more step after that, Baker said.

"Vaccines that are very effective at stopping transmission [are needed]," he said.

"Our vaccines stop you from getting seriously ill but they don't stop that transmission as well which is a problem.

"If this vaccine was as effective as say the measles vaccine, we could look at sustaining elimination country by country and looking at a global eradication.

"But I think the vaccines will get to that point at some stage."

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