Horizon Poll: Winners, Losers & Predictions

By
Martyn Bradbury
-
88
3312

LABOUR – 31%

NATIONAL – 28%

ACT – 13%

GREENS – 11%

NZ FIRST – 6.7%

Māori Party – 1.7%

As Political Geeks wait and wait and wait and wait and wait and wait for TV3 to finally get some money to run a Poll, we are left with the TVNZ, Roy Morgan and Taxpayer’s Union Poll to try and glean what the public are thinking going into the election.

Adding to these triangulation attempts comes Stuff’s self selecting poll of people who intend to vote, The Horizon Poll.

TDB Recommends NewzEngine.com

What the Horizon Poll strips out is undecided voters and focuses on those who are set in their view and intend to vote 100%. It’s for ideological storm troopers, and from that perspective, it offers some interesting clarity.

There are of course political winners and losers.

WINNERS:

NZ First – Boom. This is the first Poll in NZ that has NZ First crossing the 5% threshold. This from a group of voters who are telling us 100% that they intend to vote. It shows that the rich smug prick routine of the Right and the woke cancellation of the Left are pushing people towards NZ First and that as long as Winston doesn’t;t die between now and the election, he is back

Labour – 31% tells us that Labour’s base is stronger than National’s and that tribal Labour voters will still support Jacinda no matter how little she transforms.

ACT – 13% support for a Party that in 2018 polled .7% is just an extraordinary example how polarised NZ politics has become. They are on their way to 15%.

Māori Party – If Winston is back, the dream of a Labour/Green/Māori Party Government is dead but it could harvest Māori Party more electorates and a higher Party vote.

LOSERS:

Greens – With NZ First back, they are utterly wasted as a political voice because Winston will push them out and Labour will let Winston push them out. Once their useless becomes apparent, expect support to ebb away.

National – This poll shows how little enthusiasm there is for Luxon even amongst National voters, but it doesn’t show their overall strength with voters who are just sick of Labour so they get a poor polling here

 

 

PREDICTIONS:

This poll is interesting because it’s really polling the tribal stalwarts, and in that reckoning, Labour, ACT and NZ First have a deeper tribal support than National. This matters because if National’s enthusiasm levels are not very high, National could bleed voters off to NZ First and ACT far easier than they pick up disgruntled Labour voters.

I think this points towards a very fractured voting spectrum where enthusiasm amongst voters is really going to matter in the final result.

 

 

 

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88 COMMENTS

  1. The dynamics (based on this poll) are interesting.

    if Labour want to win they need to ditch co-governance, 3 waters and the Maorification of the country. Ditch this and does the Maori caucus remain? This is the big difference between the right and the left courting Peters – the right don’t need to ditch any major ideological frameworks to bring Winston on board.

    Also is Robertson and Ardern keen to demote Jackson and Wood and recall Trevor Mallard? This is not a poll the left should get their hopes up on.

    As for Te Reo. Well…….at least he is not David Cunliffe.

    • The right might not have to ditch anything, but they need to be challenged on what they will do about water infrastructure. There is unanimous agreement that something needs to change but listening to self-interested councils say “leave it to us just don’t look at our track record” is not an answer. Three waters and co governance don’t have exclusive roots in Labour, its just the current “right” have found it more expedient to race bait and promise more lack of infrastructure (which astonishingly appeals to pricks who then spend their day moaning about the infrastructure).

      • 3 waters was created by the current MAJORITY Labour government. labour owns this shemozzle and it will be fascinating watching if indeed polls continue to indicate the requirement of support from NZ First who are opposed to 3 waters and co-governance than any other major party in the NZ political landscape.

        • Right Frank. National would never own anything that involves attempting to fix infrastructure, unless it’s a road!!

          The actual review of three waters was kicked off in mid 2017 by National (Anne Tolley) and ran in parallel to the Havelock North Inquiry (8000 or so infected by drinking water from contaminated bores. Four people died and others were left permanently disabled)

        • So a MAJORITY government has the backing of the majority of the country right Frankie?
          Key did the same when.selling off the power companies despite a referendum voting against it. Keys reasoning, ” I was elected with a majority”.

          Are you saying National are held to a different standard Frankie?

          • No you miss the point. Wheely was pointing out that 3 waters was not solely to blame on Labour. It is.

            Too true Labour got an elected majority – they should get to decide the laws of the day. Inhope Labour do impose 3 waters before the election and in its current form.

            As for wheely claim – a review is entirely a different thing from policy

            • Frank a review is going to lead to an outcome/solution one would hope. Didn’t National, rather ironically wank on about too many reviews?

              My point was that Labour didn’t just going looking for a major issue which they hadn’t campaigned on (I think). It had been identified and unanimously agreed that something has to be done.

          • Bert….what referendum against energy ‘sell off’?
            There was no ‘referendum’ you idiot….Labour made the claim that the general election was actually a referendum on the National policy of selling 49% of the energy company to shareholders, they campaigned on it in such a way that they focused their advertising all about it, ‘a vote for National is a vote for privatisation, a vote for Labour is to stop the sell off’. National won the election, so in essence the ‘referendum’ was in Nationals favour.
            I know you live in the past and that Key lives in your head rent-free Bert, but FFS get your facts right.

      • Yeah right. Three Waters has never been about water quality. I’d encourage a slightly more critical attitude to the government’s propaganda.

    • I voted for and backed Cunliffe.

      The last of an intelligent breed of Labour politician. Not warm and fuzzy enough but NZ needed and still does a CGT or additional tax and he was principled enough to tell the electorate what he was aiming for before the election.

      Cunliffe was savaged by his own party and to be fair, was not listening to greater NZ about how undesirable it found a CGT.

      Frankie, I think you could need braille if you believe for even a second that Labour will drop this Co Governance stuff.

      My prediction is:

      Labour knows they are unlikely to win so will hammer through every awful piece of identarian legislation they have – from Hate Speech, Maori Seats, LG reform, 3 Waters etc etc. And it will all be pushed through before the election.

      They are banking on Luxon not undoing it or only undoing some of it because unwinding it will take about 10 years and will be very costly to the economy and socially.

      Also, remember once something becomes precedent, it becomes lawful and requires consultation or ultimately, a law change to get rid of it. Why do you think they changed all the standing orders and fine print on every Govt endeavour and Govt contractor or funding in the last 2 years? So it becomes custom and practice and after that you are pretty much effed.

      Some people wonder why some of us are furious.

      It wasnt enough that they threw out democracy and re-engineered the social structure of our country without a hint before the election. No, they set it up to be effectively ineradicable and now knowing the depth of the country’s anger, their response is not to back off but to double down.

      Absolute Autocracy – makes Putin look reasonable.

      • This is hysteria. This labour governemnt are far too neo-liberal for my liking but autocractic they are not. This is the kind of entitled ignorance that can only come from a separation between fantasy and reality, one only allowed to exist because you suffer zero consequences in reality. It’s the bullshitt eenagers spit otu whent hey don’t get their way. If you made the same remarks abotu Putin, in Russia, and were promninent enough to be heard by any amount of people your life would be made excedingly difficult, if it continued at all. Meanwhile NZders regularly throw all manner of bullshit at Ardern from all quarters and are free to do so.

        I’ve visited autocracies, NZ is far from one.

    • The Maorification of the country is a response to decades of white dominance in many sectors, including but not limited to education, business, and even sports. Talent has been missed all over the show because of skin colour.

      What I’d like to see happen personally is more sporting scholarships and more Maori scholarships. I’m not suggesting that they are to be funded by the New Zealand government. Rather, I think it’s the prerogative of the Maori tribes, at least primarily, to achieve this outcome and one which I’m sure they’ll be keen to implement once we get back on track a little more from the pandemic.

  2. I don’t see how you can call either of the main parties as winners. For both National and Labour to only be polling around 30% each is a loss for both of them. That means there is a bloc of around 40% of the decided voters who don’t rate either of them. That is a considerable decline from decades past and also means that less people have the tribal alignments that were commonplace in the past.

    For me the biggest loser is actually Labour – they had a rare gift in these MMP times – a clear majority that they failed to capitalise on and bring the transformative change they’d boasted about. Keeping in mind polls can change and there are still a lot of undecided voters around – what this poll appear to signal is that we are in for a period of unstable, cobbled together coalitions for the foreseeable future. The real losers here are the NZ public – especially the poor, the working class, beneficiaries etc. No party seems to really want them or do anything constructive to improve their lot. It’s the woke and the rich who rule.

    • Agree 199% .
      No party wants to do a damn thing in a hurry for the bottom feeders.

      THE CENTRE VOTERS wont let them .
      It is all me me me I am okay jack screw anyone else till it comes back and bites them in the ass then they squeal like stuck pigh.

    • The Opportunities party? I’d imagine this is their time given the fractured loyalties… I was labour (for a long time), last voted Act, this time looking at TOP -I don’t think I’m alone. We need to get back to basics AND restructure for the mid 21st century. The lesson from covid is Central government need to enable AND fund decentralisation, communities need to decide what’s best for them. As Raf says we are marching into a ‘gig’ economy the old benchmarks are out of date.

      • TOP may be able to get in perhaps but unfortunately they cannot capture the currently still large and heavily voting oriented Boomers.

        Unfortunately their funding structure spells financial death to Boomers and possibly death to future Pensioners as well. This will be a hurdle too high for many.

        • I’m a Boomer I voted TOP so did my partner and 2 of our offspring who are in their 30’s ( one of them for the 2nd time!)
          We are looking at a 3 way split this time. vote for ACT, 1 for TOP and 2 undecided but leaning to NZ First .

          • Yep, I hear you Shona as a family we will probably do something similar. But then comes the issue of tactical voting, our MP is one of Ardern’s inner circle so do we tactically give National (who I despise) the local MP vote in the hope of changing the seat?

            Lots to think about but still early days. Until this weekend’s signals to double down I would’ve said that the election was still anyone’s but if double down is the name of the game, Labour could spectacularly fall from grace.

      • I like the idea of TOP, but you have trouble grasping basic facts if you voted ACT thinking they’d offer anythign new to tackle the 21st century. Thatcher, Reagan, Rogernomics. They’re just a more extreme version of National, the Republican party of NZ minus the religion. Liz Truss’s tories. We saw how well her and her policies went over the last month or so in a 21st century economy. We’ve seen how their policies have done to those respective countries over the last 40 years. Sending both coutnries back to soemthing much more akin to the gilded age 100 years earleir.

        The term gig economy is used to fleece rubes that the economic forces that shape our lives are ineviatble, rather than a social construct emerging out of decisions shaped and matained by various institutions. A fancy way to tell workers that they need to be more flexible, constantly develop new skills while getting less runemeration and almost zero job security. It’s the modern equivalent of the divine right theory of kingship. You must adapt because this is beyond our control.

    • I agree. There is a large Bloc of undecided voters. Based on past elections, they’ll start making their minds up on whom to vote for at around March of next year. By April, that large Bloc will probably have shrunk to around thirty percent.

      It’s a large percentage, you’re right, and I personally feel that people are starting to lose confidence, interest, and faith in our Prime Minister. Whilst I personally have not lost faith in our Prime Minister, I know of a lot of voters who have.

  3. Act and NZ first need to swallow pride and ego and work together with National judging by this poll. Or Greens need to swallow pride and wk with Nat’s and ACT. Probably achieve more.

    • Does it surprise you that Peters and Seymour have been catching up regularly over the past 12 months.

      Also has NZ First said during this cycle that they won’t work with ACT. Therein lies your answer.

      • What BS. Winston and Seymour have not once been “catching up together” these past 12 months. Prove it that they have.

        Full of crap for your own political spin.

      • What utter crap.

        Peters used parliamentary privilege to (falsely) accuse Seymour of breaking the law. Seymour has called Peters disgraceful and corrupt and says it was a highlight of his year to see Peters leave parliament in 2020. There is no love between them at all.

        The idea that they are “catching up regularly” beggars belief.

    • The Greens already have ruled out working with National. They could have formed a government with National in 2016. Maybe that is why the Green Party is becoming obsolete. They either should want to be actively in government or they just want a pay check. What is it?

      • Becoming obsolete?? Hanging around 10% in polls does not support your dumb, wishful idea.
        Check should be spelt cheque, and you obviously lack any understanding of why people annoy you by consistently looking for something more worthy than your own low political outlook.

  4. So who’s taking the bets for a Hung Parliament?
    A possible minority government?
    Or a government that can’t pass legislation because it’s coalition partner decides to hold-out and play chicken with them?
    Or a coalition government that falls apart within months?

    What are the odds?

  6. The biggest loser is Labour. Full Majority, an outpouring of good will and ‘chance giving’ by the public to this Party and their leader, and they squandered it – three years of fuck all but grandstanding and pretend caring. They created nothing with it. They divided the country. Kids homeless and hungry. Kids dying of tonsillitis in an overcrowded and understaffed/valued health system. Food slowly but surely becoming a luxury……and so on and so forth.

    National does not have to win, it just does not have to lose, hodling on to that 30+ level and find some coaltion partners. Done.
    The one that is able to cobble a coalition together next election is the winner, and chances are it ain’t Labour.

  8. Clearly Gran and Gramps are certainly not voting for their grandchildren’s future health, wealth and well-being. Selfish and sad!

    • You need to get out more Verity. People are not voting for this Government because of lack of progress and consultation no transparency and loads of weasel words. The only selfish and sad thing is your comment.

    • Verity Verdant. This gran would like to suggest to you that your words are unfair and untrue. I have already recorded that I will die worrying about my grandchildren. If any politicians care about children, I’d like to know who they are. The Minister for Children, Kelvin Davis ? The Minister for Social Welfare , Carmel Sepuloni, busy abolishing their Commissioner ? Just because politicians fail, time after time, to recognise the importance of our mokopuna, doesn’t mean that their elders are as myopic as they are.

  9. Jesus Christ! To think I must surely occasionally pass with 2 meters of an ACT voter in a car going in the opposite direction. That, is deeply concerning.
    Who, or perhaps ‘what’ could vote ACT knowing it’s a roger douglas plaything? After all the distruction roger’s caused to our economy and the people who earn it.
    I’m frankly dismayed. A degree in philosophy AND in electrical engineering. Does that mean he could justify the rational behind re introducing capital punishment with a side order of ‘fries’?
    Finn Flynn.
    https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2022/10/25/guest-blog-finn-flynn-the-road-to-serfdom-acts-map-to-backwards/
    The gag worth irony just keeps giving.
    “Prime Minister Jim Bolger fired Richardson from her portfolio in 1993. Not long after, the disgusted Douglas set up the Association of Consumers and Taxpayers – the ACT party. ”
    “Under the previous prime minister Robert Muldoon, the accrual of petty rules and regulations had stifled economic innovation and vitality, which caused fiscal haemorrhaging. Reform was urgently due, but Douglas used a rusty pocket knife instead of a sterilised scalpel to cut to the core of the problem. He hacked off whole limbs rather than excising particular cancers. Douglas’s frenzied slashing of regulations, the garage sale of public assets and destruction of public services no doubt saved the country from short term financial hazard, but it also profoundly damaged whole sectors of the economy for years to come. Opportunists, local and international, gorged themselves on the massively undervalued assets, launching the likes of Michael Fay, David Richwhite, Graeme Hart and Eric Watson to stratospheric wealth while hundreds of thousands of New Zealanders lost their jobs, homes, businesses and marriages.
    David Seymour was only two years old when Roger Douglas first wielded his knife, too young to remember the damage that took so long to heal, and certainly never felt the effects himself. And Seymour wants to step in his mentor’s shoes. ACT’s policies follow Hayek’s dark walkabout.”
    “Nevertheless, for a former Wall St currency trader, the smell of money was too great. John Key sold Peter Thiel New Zealand citizenship within 12 days of his application. It’s worth noting that Key has recently admitted that he would have voted for Trump, and that if he was Brazilian he would vote for Bolsonaro. ”
    “Seymour is smart enough to know that charismatic Christianity in New Zealand will fly politically as well as a deep fried kereru. But he also knows that the best way to achieve power is offering his services to the lords of wealth. His promise is to help them make more money and accrue more political leverage. He made that plain in his ACT annual conference speech in July: “Some people think it’s somehow wrong that many of New Zealand’s greatest business people got together and donated over a million dollars to ACT in March alone. I’m very proud that such people are backing us.”
    “Seymour’s entire working life has been as a policy wonk and recidivist ACT candidate. He’s never had a real job. He has never even worked in a business let alone run one and yet, like Brian Tamaki, he postures as a new messiah; the messiah of the monied. ”
    YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

  10. Nats polling 28%! Considering the open goal presented by the incompetence, dishonesty and contempt for ordinary Kiwis shown by the current government, that’s a vote of no-confidence in Luxon.

    Within the array of lousy options available to the NZ electorate, those same numbers would represent probably the least pernicious possible result on election night. Those numbers would require the Nats to team up with both Seymour and Peters, who would force Luxon’s woke corporate arse off the fence.

    • The problem with Luxon is that he’s caught in ‘corperate speak’. Too afraid to say anything confrontational unless he loses customers, and he’s trying to appease the nz media, which is a waste of time – they are mostly left leaning so no matter who is the national leader, he’ll (she) never appeal to them.

      Personally he needs to grow a pair. Last weekends interview when asked about the lack of diversity in the national party, he extolled about getting someone diverse to fill the Hamilton West seat. He should of told the interviewer to piss off, where getting the best person for the job. But he couldn’t bring himself to do it.

      If Seymour was leading National, they’d be at 45+

      • Unfortunately, the problem goes much deeper than Luxon’s lack of gonads. The Nats aren’t a conservative party – 3/4 of them voted for the nefarious legislation banning so-called “conversion practices”. They’re the party of business, and business is increasingly woke these days.

        • Exactly.

          National are NINO (I’m sure you know what that means)

          Their motto for the past 20 years has pretty much been, “Just like Labour, but we’ll actually see it through”

    • Winston is going with Ardern. Again, if Luxon had any cajones he’d rule out Winston now. So a vote for Winston is a vote for Ardern.

      Key ruled him out, and won 3 elections in a row, English didn’t and what happened to him???

  14. In 2017 Labour were a new wind blowing through the country promising kindness, caring and to be a Government for ALL New Zealanders. Silly me even gave them my vote as I was riding the collective high of Jacindamaia .

    Well crikey haven’t times changed.

    Labour have managed to divide the country in ways I have never seen before in my lifetime, the kindness mantra turned out to be all weasel words with no action. And far from governing for all Labour have split the country whilst empowering both the capitalist elite and the Iwi elite at the same time and much to a chargrin of a fair chunk of the population.

    That imported poison that is called Critical Race theory (aka we hate white peeps) is now flowing through the veins of all government institutions, health, education, you name it. Yes if you are white and you get abused by a brown person for being white thats on you whitie!

    We are also being threatened with new Hate Speech laws. Who decides what is hate and what isn’t?

    If you pronounce Te Reo wrong you are now a white supremacist according to twitter boffs

    I could go on

    The dream of 2017 has become the nightmare of 2022

  15. Thank you Countryboy for helping to keep us sane. Can I ask, who are you thinking of voting for next year?
    I’m not baiting you I am just curious. I am thinking TOP myself or maybe NZF. Almost anyone but Labour.

  16. It is another year before the election.Labour has at least 1 more budget plus the chance of mini to ups as the have a large war chest of tax money to play with .NZF has just had a get together giving Winston the exposure he craves. He cuts a good impression of the elder statesman . It is not until the others riding on his coattails speak that the voting public discover the weakness of his team . Some have been scared off National by the disaster in the UK and have confused Luxon’s policy with the poorly thought out UK policy .In the next few months more will be explained and voters will see the benefit of voting National

    • I agree, Trevor. Labour most certainly do have a large war chest of money to play around with before the next general election. That is to National’s consternation, and to an extent, disadvantage.

      National are most likely to go over the top with their campaigning next year. Jacinda Ardern won’t need to campaign as hard.

      Despite this poll, Jacinda Ardern is likely to garner a third term. It will be dependent on a variety of factors though. Too many blunders before election day, and she’s definitely out. The voters won’t be messing around next year.

      Personally I do feel that Jacinda Ardern ought to have a third term, although I also feel that in certain areas her passion is fading.

      It will be an interesting election.

  17. ” The biggest loser is Labour. Full Majority, an outpouring of good will and ‘chance giving’ by the public to this Party and their leader, and they squandered it – three years of fuck all but grandstanding and pretend caring. They created nothing with it. They divided the country. Kids homeless and hungry. Kids dying of tonsillitis in an overcrowded and understaffed/valued health system. Food slowly but surely becoming a luxury……and so on and so forth ”

    LINO Transformation and neo liberal adherence gets this response to Genters windfall tax.

    Both Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Finance Minister Grant Robertson have said they did not favour a windfall tax.

    ” Ardern told Morning Report that most countries that have introduced windfall taxes have large oil and gas companies which were reaping the benefits of high energy prices at present ”

    Genter argued the following

    ” The Green Party says many supermarkets, fuel retailers, power companies, and banks are not paying their fair share of tax.

    The party’s finance spokesperson Julie Anne Genter has called for a new windfall tax on excess profits made by major corporations.

    She said the sectors making record profits were the same ones in which New Zealanders were struggling with the cost-of-living crisis – such as buying food, fuel and energy and paying for mortgages and rents.

    The tax would apply during periods when people struggled to make ends meet, such as a similar scheme put in place after the World Wars.

    It would target the top 20 companies operating in the supermarket, banking, construction, energy and petroleum sectors, which had benefited from external factors like global inflation and the government’s pandemic response.

    The status Quo Must GO.

  19. I’ve thought for a while now that 2023 is going to be less of a traditional Labour vs National election and more a minor party battle royal where the Greens, ACT, Maori and TOP will be duking it out for influence over the main two parties, and hooo boy did that battle royal just get a whole lot trickier with the reintroduction of NZ First… Doing some calculations in my head based on several results I see playing out I actually think there’s a decent chance we could end up with a hung parliament where both the left and right blocks only have 60 seats each and we’d need to have something like the Greens going with National, ACT going with Labour, TOP working with NZ First or Maori working with ACT and/or NZ First in order to break the stalemate. Pucker your buttholes everyone, we’re in for a wild ride next year!

  20. Has that list of Crises from 2017,2020 got longer or….

    Housing
    Poverty
    Child Poverty
    Health & Ed.
    Economy & Inflation
    Infrastructure
    Corruption (political)
    3 Waters
    Broke Councils
    Pollution & Green Wash’n
    Crime
    Mentals & Terrorism

    Anything else?

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